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Mexico Infrastructure Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Aug. 27, 2009 - 62 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThis quarter we have only slightly revised our infrastructure sector forecasts for Mexico. In light ofslightly better than expected data, we now expect the country’s infrastructure sector to contract by 5.1%in real terms during 2009, compared with our earlier expectation of 6.1%. We continue to expect growthof close to zero in subsequent years; indeed, we predict it will take until 2014 for annual real sectorgrowth to move above 1%.It should be noted that in the event of the National Infrastructure Plan (NIP) taking off, the risks to ourforecasts could be to the upside. The NIP is a wide government initiative that plans public and privateannual investment of MXN420bn (US$38.44bn) for the period 2007-2012. However, the NIP isdependent on significant private finance at a time when the willingness of potential investors to providefunds remains extremely limited. Moreover, the government is facing significant difficulties with its ownefforts to raise borrowing. The government has already had to curtail some of its plans for investment inroads. Aside from the upside risks sketched above, there are also downside risks to our forecasts, particularly for2010. Much depends upon how prolonged the global economic downturn is: at the moment, our corescenario envisages a recovery in the global economy during 2010, but this scenario is by no meansguaranteed. There were a number of significant developments in the power sector over the last quarter. A consortiummanaged by Spanish utility company Iberdrola secured a US$160mn deal to extend and modernisepower lines in the states of Veracruz and Chiapas, Iberdrola and Mexican group Energias Ambientalesde Oaxaca secured a US$176.6mn deal for the construction of the 101MW Oaxaca 1 wind farm, andFrance’s Alstom won a EUR45mn (US$61mn) deal to supply the 25MW Los Humeros II geothermalpower plant, including key equipment. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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