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Iran Shipping Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Aug. 3, 2009 - 87 Pages Table of Contents
Abstract2009 has been a tough year for the shipping sector. Container freight rates have plunged with industryobservers issuing profit warnings for container lines' full-year results. The liquid bulk sector has remainedafloat as tankers have been used for oil storage purposes, while dry bulk shipping fortunes have fluctuatedfrom all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery, to dipping once more as the sector's fortunes havebecome increasingly tied to China's raw-material needs.For the Q409 Iran Shipping Report we have reviewed our forecast data for container volumes in 2009,taking into account the most recent monthly throughput data. BMI has revised its 2009 containerthroughput forecasts for the port of Bandar Abbas. We now believe that for the whole of 2009 the port'stotal container throughput will fall by 5.55%. As 2009 draws to a close BMI answers the question of what is next for the Iranian shipping sector. Wepredict that a gradual recovery in the country's ports throughput will begin in 2010. This is based upon thefact that our Country Risk Desk is forecasting Iran's total trade to increase by 3.87% in 2010. BMIpredicts container volumes at the port of Bandar Abbas will increase by 6.3%% in 2010. This estimatewill see the port to handling a total of 2mn TEUs in 2010. We expect growth in throughput volumes to continue at the port for the rest of the mid term (2010-2013). According to BMI's Shipping Desk forecasts for the port of Bandar Abbas, we predict that total containervolumes will increase by a yearly average of 7.8%. This growth will enable the port of Bandar Abbas toreclaim its pre-downturn levels of container throughput in 2010. Iran's port throughout recovery is reliant on a revival in Iranian trade volumes. For the whole of 2009BMI expects Iran's imports to decline by 2% and its exports to fall by 4%. A recovery is forecast for2010, with total trade forecast to grow by 3.87%. BMI predicts that over the rest of the mid term (2011-2013) the country's total will increase by a yearly average of 5.09%. This trade recovery will see the country's import and export worth increase to US$74.35bn andUS$99.99bn, respectively, by 2013. BMI does not expect the country's current main trade partners ofChina, Japan, the UAE, Turkey, South Korea, Russia and Italy to change dramatically over the mid term. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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