|
|
Belgium Freight Transport Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Aug. 27, 2009 - 43 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractBelgium-based Cargo B Airlines has ceased trading, it was reported in early July. Niek van der Weide,commercial executive vice-president, said the airline had failed to attract investment. He added that loadfactors had been on target, but because of the current market condition, yields were too low to make theoperation viable. The airline was not expecting any improvement in the near future and low operatingcharges, due to increasing competition, had added to the problem, he said. Industry observers believedeteriorating market conditions and external cost pressure forced the company to close. BMI points outthat the airfreight industry has been battered in recent months by high fuel prices and declining trafficvolumes. We do not expect a recovery in 2009 as the global financial crisis squeezes air cargo volumes.In our latest Belgium Freight Transport Report, the overriding story continues to be about the impact ofthe recession on the freight sector. We expect Belgian GDP to fall by 2.4% in 2009, and for there to benear-zero growth in 2010 (+0.2%). As a result, average annual GDP growth across the 2009-2013 fiveyearforecast period will be only 0.7%. We expect annual average growth in freight carried across allmodes, measured in million tonnes-km (mntkm), to be 1.2% during the forecast period. Despite the poormarket conditions, this rate will be supported by greater infrastructure investment. Although we arerelatively confident of the industry’s resilience, the risks to the freight sector do lie on the downside,particularly because of the intensity of the European and global recession. For the 2009-2013 forecast period, we expect the value of activity in the transport and communicationssector to continue outpacing the economy as a whole. It will achieve average annual growth of 1.1%,versus 0.7% for overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$34bnin nominal terms by 2013, representing 6.8% of Belgium’s GDP. Our overall forecast for freight carried in Belgium is for low growth based on a mature industry, goodinfrastructure, a reduced economic growth rate, and the country’s openness to foreign trade. We see thebest performing sector to be shipping, which despite the downturn in trade levels in 2009 will benefitfrom strong growth in subsequent years. Airfreight, which - with annual average growth of 0.9% - willcome through another period of relative turbulence in the sector. A smaller European carrier, SN BrusselsAirlines is likely to be absorbed by Lufthansa in the current round of regional consolidation. If the fulltakeover goes ahead over the next two years, it will not necessarily be negative for airfreight volumegrowth, and could conceivably boost it further. Rail freight and pipeline throughput are both expected togrow by an annual average of 0.7%, on a par with GDP expansion - this is due to new investment ininfrastructure. We see road freight also in line with GDP, with an average annual growth of 0.7%,reflecting the impact of the recession on freight demand. Inland water transport will grow by an averageof 0.3% per annum. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
|
|||
|
About MarketResearch.com
|
||||