Next-generation access development: defining trends

Published by: Ovum Plc

Published: Jul. 31, 2009 - 22 Pages

Table of Contents

Executive summary

In a nutshell

Key messages

Fibre is paving the way for new access networks owned by new entities

The impact of FTTx will be significant, but it’s a long-term play

Infrastructure-based competition will remain the driving force in many markets

Expect new models to emerge, both now and in the longer term

Infrastructure-sharing and joint ventures will be far more prevalent

Service-based competition will be more prevalent in less dense areas

Wholesale access products will be much more important in certain markets

Expect significant differences in next-generation market dynamics

The NGA context

A consequence of next-generation technology

The implications of IP migration

Fibre drivers: ICT is underpinning economic and social development

Tangible NGA benefits: be patient

Fibre drivers: stakeholder perspectives

The incumbent perspective

The existing network competitor perspective

The new entrant infrastructure player perspective

The regulatory perspective

Can NGA level the playing field? That depends

NGA deployments: global evolution

NGA has momentum, but is a mid- to long-term play

Globally, incumbent deployment rules…

…but alternative investment is strong in Europe

Dealing with the legacy

Incumbents: sweating copper; leveraging xDSL technology advances

NGA and competition: all about the network

Competition: the life-blood of growth and innovation

The most successful competitors today are network players

No network, no business model?

Altnets are moving up the ladder

Infrastructure-based competition will remain the norm

Service-based competition requires development

Facilitating competitor access: key challenges

NGA remedies will not follow on neatly from well-established mechanisms

NGA: headline trends

A more diverse and dynamic market?

Expect more infrastructure-sharing

Greater public intervention will influence direction

The rise of geographic differentiation

Public-private partnerships will feature strongly

In some markets they will change the landscape significantly

In other markets they will play an important complementary role

List of Tables

Table 1: Factors influencing NGA development in various countries

Table 2: ‘Non-telco’ deployments of FTTH/B, 4Q08

Table 3: Selected incumbent plans for NGA deployment

Table 4: Leading competitors and their networks in selected markets, 4Q08

Table 5: Free’s reported margins for broadband access

Table 6: National plans in three AP markets: key parameters

List of Figures

Figure 1: FTTH/B connections by country (year-end 2008)

Figure 2: Regional forecasts for FTTH/B and overall consumer broadband connections, 2008-2014

Figure 3: Percentage of competitor versus incumbent DSL lines, 3Q08

Figure 4: The sweet spot for telcos

Figure 5: NGA directions

Figure 6: Multiple approaches to NGA

Figure 7: A blend of infrastructure and service competition

Abstract

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