LTE: the compelling answer?

Published by: IDATE

Published: Jul. 1, 2009 - 75 Pages

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1. The roadmap and forecasts

1.2. Modelling the business cases

1.3. Regulations and technicalities

2. Methodology

2.1. Market assessment and forecasts

2.2. Presentation of LTE deployment model

3. The grand LTE roadmap

3.1. A healthy ecosystem

3.2. Commercial launch scheduled for 2010

3.3. Devices roadmap

3.4. LTE adoption forecasts, by region

4. What is the cost of LTE deployment?

4.1. Scenario of reference: LTE overlay

4.2. Base case results: 2.1 billion EUR over seven years for 50 million population, 75%

coverage

5. Which type of operator benefits most?

5.1. LTE: where the integrated operator is winner

5.2. Deployment cost of a greenfield operator

6. LTE: just for urban hotspots, or wider?

6.1. LTE coverage trends

6.2. LTE cost of deployment by population coverage

6.3. Enabling LTE in rural areas: deployment in lower frequency band

7. How to enhance and monetise the service experience: the VoLTE and smart pipe model

7.1. VoIP: LTE set to change operator perceptions

7.2. LTE enhances the mobile experience

7.3. LTE smart pipe: operators leverage their central position

8. Which regulatory constraints for LTE deployment?

8.1. The telecom and Internet regulation review

8.2. Restrictions applied to base stations

8.3. Request for more spectrum, less regulation

9. LTE accelerates the consolidation of the mobile market

9.1. Accelerating the trend towards Fixed Mobile Convergence

9.2. LTE strengthens the case for network sharing

9.3. LTE drives partnerships in the mobile sector

10. LTE spectrum: impact on roadmap and costs

10.1. Potential frequency bands: 2G, 3G bands and more

10.2. FDD vs. TDD: paired spectrum still dominant but TDD operations gaining ground24

10.3. Roadmap for awards of LTE spectrum licences

10.4. Cost of LTE frequencies

11. LTE key technological features

11.1. OFDMA and spectrum flexibility

11.2. FDD and TDD convergence

11.3. Evolved Packet Core architecture

Tables & figures

Table 1: LTE CapEx for base case scenario

Table 2: Selected constraints for LTE deployment in France, Germany, UK and Switzerland

Table 3: Estimates of LTE spectrum value in Western Europe

Table 4: Area, population and density of base case scenario

Table 5: LTE CapEx for base case scenario

Table 6: Sensitivity analysis for level of mast sharing

Table 7: LTE adoption: advantages and drawbacks for various operator types

Table 8: LTE investment for different coverage levels for a deployment in the band 2.6 GHz

Table 9: LTE investment for different coverage level for an urban and suburban deployment in the band 2.6 GHz and a rural deployment in the band 790-862 MHz

Table 10: Services enhanced by LTE

Table 11: Power limits to limit electromagnetic exposure set by the WHO

Table 12: Selected constraints for LTE deployment in Germany, UK, France and Switzerland

Table 13: The full list of signatories of the GSMA letter

Table 14: LTE frequency bands by geographical area

Table 15: Main frequency bands for UMTS/HSPA deployment - FDD mode

Table 16: Main frequency bands for UMTS/HSPA deployment - TDD mode

Table 17: TDD and FDD mode advantages and drawbacks

Table 18: Situation of the 2.5-2.69 GHz band

Table 19: Date of availability of LTE spectrum

Table 20: Swedish 2.6 GHz auctions results

Table 21: Summary of US 700 MHz auctions

Table 22: Estimates of LTE spectrum value in Western Europe

Table 23: Technological comparison of mobile broadband technologies

Figure 1: Global LTE adoption forecast (End-2012 to end-2015)

Figure 2: Major operators LTE commercial deployment schedule

Figure 3: Geographical mapping of early LTE commercial deployment

Figure 4: LTE devices roadmap

Figure 5: Influence of the Vodafone, China Mobile and Verizon Wireless partnership over LTE ecosystem

Figure 6: LTE investment breakdown for base case scenario

Figure 7: Options for carrier upgrades to LTE depending on technology deployed

Figure 8: Network cost model calculation of RAN elements needed for LTE coverage

Figure 9: Equipment vendors supporting the LTSI and/or NGMN Alliance

Figure 10: Mobile operators supporting the LTSI and/or NGMN Alliance

Figure 11: Major operator LTE commercial deployment schedule

Figure 12: Geographical mapping of early LTE commercial deployment

Figure 13: LTE devices roadmap

Figure 14: Global LTE adoption forecast (End-2012 to end-2015)

Figure 15: LTE adoption forecast for Japan and South Korea (End-2012 to end-2015)

Figure 16: LTE adoption forecast for China (End-2012 to end-2015)

Figure 17: US subscribers by technology

Figure 18: LTE adoption forecast for USA (End-2012 to end-2015)

Figure 19: LTE adoption forecast for the EU5 and Scandinavia (End-2012 to end-2015)

Figure 20: Cumulated population and area in selected European countries

Figure 21: Subscribers with LTE-enabled handset

Figure 22: Handset mix among subscriber base

Figure 23: Global mobile data and mobile Internet monthly traffic, per service type

Figure 25: UMTS/HSPA and LTE population coverage over time

Figure 26: Backhaul capacity required per cell site

Figure 27: Backhaul technology breakdown in 2008

Figure 28: LTE investment breakdown for base case scenario

Figure 29: Sensitivity of RAN investment to mast sharing level

Figure 30: LTE gradual deployment timeline for an average Western Europe MNO

Figure 31: LTE RAN investment according to population coverage - 2.6 GHz band

Figure 32: Comparison of LTE RAN investment - rural population coverage with 800 MHz and 2.6 GHz spectrum

Figure 33: LTE investment per inhabitant for various LTE spectrum scenarios

Figure 34: LTE adoption drivers, service innovation and business models

Figure 35: VoIP competitiveness compared to MNO offers

Figure 36: ARPU trends

Figure 37: Power limits applied in Europe

Figure 38: The case for 2.6 GHz LTE Femtocells

Figure 39: UMTS network and potential sharing

Figure 40: Influence of the Vodafone, China Mobile and Verizon Wireless partnership over LTE ecosystem

Figure 41: Partnerships between vendors targeting LTE Japanese market

Figure 42: Vendors selected by Verizon Wireless for LTE deployment

Figure 43: Situation of the 698-960 MHz band after WRC-07

Figure 44: TDD and FDD developments

Figure 45: Digital dividend timetable in Europe

Figure 46: Description of OFDM

Figure 47: Options for carrier upgrades to LTE depend on technology deployed

Figure 48: FDD and TDD duplex both supported by LTE

Figure 49: The simplified LTE architecture

Abstract

• What is the cost of deploying LTE?
• Which type of operator benefits the most?
• What are the regulatory constraints for LTE deployment?
• What are the LTE commercial deployments scheduled by Tier1
operators?
• How could LTE accelerate the development of new popular
solutions such as Mobile VoIP, or FMC?
• Could LTE accelerate the consolidation of the mobile market?

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