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Romania Infrastructure Report Q4 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Aug. 12, 2009 - 81 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary

Market Overview

Romania

Global Overview

Governments To The Rescue: The Global Surge In Infrastructure Spending

Table: Infrastructure Stimulus Plans List

SWOT Analysis

Romania Infrastructure Industry SWOT

Romania Political SWOT

Romania Economic SWOT

Romania Business Environment SWOT

Major Infrastructure Developments And Key Projects

Transport Infrastructure Overview

New And Ongoing Projects

Roads And Bridges

Railways

Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Overview

Stable Power Infrastructure

New And Ongoing Projects

Power Plants And Transmission Grids

Pipelines

Water

Construction Overview

New And Ongoing Projects

Residential Construction

Commercial Construction

Industrial Construction

Major Projects Table

Table: Romania Major Projects - Transport

Table: Major Projects - Utilities

Table: Major Projects - Construction

Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Romania - Infrastructure Industry Forecast

Industry Forecast Overview

Risks

Commodities

Business Environment

Central And Eastern Europe Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings

Table: Regional Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings

Limits of Potential Returns

Risk To Realisation Of Potential Returns

Project Finance Ratings

Table: Design And Construction Rating

Table: Commissioning And Operating Rating

Table: Overall Project Finance Rating

Foreign Direct Investment

Labour Force

Legal Framework

Tax Regime

Corruption

Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Romania - Economic Activity

Political Outlook

Company Monitor

Transelectrica

STRABAG SE

Country Snapshot: Romania Demographic Data

Section 1: Population

Section 2: Education And Healthcare

Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006

Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2005-2010 (US$)

Table: Average Annual Wages, 2006-2010

BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Construction Industry

Sources

Business Environment Ratings

Ratings Overview

Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators

Project Finance Ratings Methodology

Table: Design And Construction Phase

Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Commercial Construction

Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Energy And Utilities

Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Transport

Abstract

We continue to forecast a fall in construction sector output in Romania during 2009. In fact, we have revised our forecast slightly this quarter, to a real contraction of 4.3% in construction output for the year as a whole, compared with the previous forecast for a 3.2% annual fall. Aside from concerns about the impact of the recession on the availability of public funds for infrastructure spending, this revision also reflects the effect of the recession on private business demand (including demand for office and warehouse space) and residential property demand. For 2010, we continue to expect near zero real construction sector growth (0.2% for the year as a whole), as the recession - and the strain on public finances - will take time to ease, according to our core scenario.

This quarter we update our analysis of regional construction giant STRABAG SE and Transelectrica, the Romanian transmission and system operator. STRABAG, the parent company of STRABAG SE, is being weighed down by acquisitions made at the top of the market last year. Transelectrica is in a relatively good position, having continued to generate a profit in Q109, despite Romania entering a sharp recession during the quarter.

E.ON Romania announced that it will slash investments in electricity and gas networks in Romania by 26% to RON245mn (US$81.7mn) in 2009 compared with the earlier planned amount of RON331mn (US$110.4mn), reports NewsIn (June 2009). The company has taken this decision because of the ongoing global financial crisis. The company's earlier plans for 2009 included replacement of about 40% of its pipeline web, adding to the 850kms of pipeline that were repaired during the past four years, and to the 1,450kms that were replaced earlier.

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