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Latvia Shipping Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Aug. 12, 2009 - 93 Pages Table of Contents
Abstract2009 has been a tough year for the shipping sector - container freight rates have plunged with industryobservers issuing profit warnings for container lines' full-year results. The liquid bulk sector has remainedafloat, as tankers have been used for oil storage purposes. Dry bulk shipping fortunes have fluctuatedfrom all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery, to dipping once more, as the sector's fortunes havebecome increasingly tied to China's raw-material needs.For the Q409 Latvia Shipping Report we have reviewed our forecast data for total tonnage throughput andcontainer volumes at the country's ports for 2009, taking into account, where available, the most recentmonthly throughput data. Using Latvia's main port of Riga as an example, BMI has revised its 2009throughput forecasts for this port up. We believe that for the whole of 2009 the port's total tonnagethroughput will increase by 1.56%, y-o-y, with container throughput set to grow by 2.24%. As 2009 draws to a close, BMI answers the question of what is next for the Latvian shipping sector. Wepredict a slow growth in the country's ports throughput starting 2010. This is based upon the fact that ourCountry Risk desk is forecasting Latvia's total trade to increase by 1.5% in 2010. Using the port of Rigaas an example, BMI predicts that tonnage throughput at the port will grow by 1.90% while containervolumes will increase by 1.35% in 2010. This estimate will see the port handling a total of 30.6mn tonnesand 218,540TEUs in 2010. We expect growth in throughput volumes to continue at the port for the rest of the mid term (2011-2013). According to BMI's Shipping Desk forecasts for the port of Riga, we predict that total tonnagethroughput will increase on average by 1.5% per year, with container volumes increasing by a yearlyaverage of 1.1%. Latvia's port growth is reliant on a revival in Latvia's trade volumes. For the whole of 2009 BMI expectsLatvia's imports to decline by 17% and its exports to fall by 16%. A gradual recovery is forecast to beginin 2010, with total trade forecast to grow by 1.5%. BMI predicts that over the rest of the mid term (2011-2013) the country's total trade will increase by a yearly average of 2.5%. This trade recovery will see the country's import and export worth increase to US$12.8bn and US$9.4bn,respectively, by 2013. BMI does not expect the country's current main trade partners of Lithuania,Russia, Germany, Estonia, Poland and Sweden to change dramatically over the mid term. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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