|
|
Estonia Shipping Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Aug. 11, 2009 - 88 Pages Table of Contents
Abstract2009 has been a tough year for the shipping sector - container freight rates have plunged with industryobservers issuing profit warnings for container lines' full-year results. The liquid bulk sector has remainedafloat, as tankers have been used for oil storage purposes. Dry bulk shipping fortunes have fluctuatedfrom all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery, to dipping once more, as the sector's fortunes havebecome increasingly tied to China's raw-material needs.For the Q409 Estonia Shipping Report we have reviewed our forecast data for total tonnage throughputand container volumes for 2009, taking into account, where available, the most recent monthly throughputdata for the port of Tallinn. BMI has revised its 2009 throughput forecasts for the port up. We believe thatfor the whole of 2009 the port's total tonnage throughput will increase by 2.63%, y-o-y. As 2009 draws to a close, BMI answers the question of what is next for the Estonian shipping sector. Weforecast that 2010 will be a difficult year for Estonia's port of Tallinn, as its throughput volumes could behit hard when the new fuel terminal becomes operational at the Russian port of Ust-Luga. BMI predictsthat tonnage throughput at the port will decrease by 22.86% to 23.0mn tonnes in 2010. At the same time,we forecast a gradual recovery in the port's container throughput to begin in 2010. This is based upon thefact that our Country Risk desk is forecasting Estonia's total trade to increase by 0.99% in 2010. BMIpredicts that container volumes at the port of Tallinn will increase by 2.76% in 2010, and this estimatewill see the port handling a total 140,842TEUs. We expect growth in throughput volumes to take place at the port for the rest of the mid term (2011-2013). According to BMI's Shipping Desk forecasts for the port of Tallinn, we predict that total tonnagethroughput will increase on average by 6.3% per year, with container volumes increasing by a yearlyaverage of 6.7%. This growth will not, however, enable the port of Tallinn to reclaim its current levels oftonnage throughput, or fully reverse the port's 2009 container decline during our forecast period. A recovery at the port of Tallinn is reliant on a revival in Estonia's trade volumes, especially as the portlooks set to lose Russian oil shipments. For the whole of 2009 BMI expects Estonia's imports to declineby 10.0%, and its exports to fall by 8.30%. A gradual recovery is forecast to begin in 2010, with totaltrade forecast to grow by 0.99%. BMI predicts that over the rest of the mid term (2011-2013) thecountry's total trade will increase by a yearly average of 3.7%. This trade recovery will see the country's import and export worth increase to US$13.3bn and US$13.4bn,respectively, by 2013. BMI does not expect the country's current main trade partners of Finland, Sweden,Latvia, Germany, Lithuania and Russia to change dramatically over the mid term. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
|
|||
|
About MarketResearch.com
|
||||