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Croatia Shipping Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Aug. 11, 2009 - 92 Pages Table of Contents
Abstract2009 has been a tough year for the shipping sector - container freight rates have plunged with industryobservers issuing profit warnings for container lines' full-year results. The liquid bulk sector has remainedafloat, as tankers have been used for oil-storage purposes. Dry bulk shipping fortunes have fluctuated -from all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery, to dipping once more - as the sector's fortunes havebecome increasingly tied to China's raw-material needs.For BMI's Q409 Croatia Shipping Report we have reviewed our forecast data for total tonnagethroughput and container volumes for 2009, taking into account, where available, the most recent monthlythroughput data for the port of Ploce. BMI has revised its 2009 throughput forecasts for the port down.We believe that for the whole of 2009 the port's total tonnage throughput will fall by 30.68%, y-o-y. As 2009 draws to a close, BMI answers the question of what is next for the Croatian shipping sector. Wepredict that a gradual recovery in the country's ports throughput will begin in 2010. This is based upon thefact that our Country Risk desk is forecasting Croatia's total trade to increase by 3.27% in 2010. At one ofcountry's main ports, the port of Ploce, BMI predicts that tonnage throughput at the port will grow by4.78% while container volumes will increase by 6.54% in 2010. This estimate will see the port tohandling a total of 3.7mn tonnes and 24,035 TEUs in 2010. We expect growth in throughput volumes to continue at the port for the rest of the mid term (2011-2013). According to BMI's shipping desk forecasts for the port of Ploce, we predict that total tonnage throughputwill increase on average by 13.3% per year, with container volumes increasing by a yearly average of17.2%. This growth will enable the port of Ploce to reclaim its pre-downturn levels of both tonnage andcontainer throughput in 2013. Croatia's port recovery is reliant on a revival in Croatia's trade volumes. For the whole of 2009 BMIexpects Croatia's imports and exports both to decline by 10%. A gradual recovery is forecast to begin in2010, with total trade forecast to grow by 3.27%. BMI predicts that over the rest of the mid term (2011-2013) the country's total trade will increase by a yearly average of 4.73%. This trade recovery will see the country's import and export worth increase to US$34.3bn and US$31.2bnrespectively by 2013. BMI does not expect the country's current main trade partners of Italy, Germany,Russia, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, China and Austria to change dramatically over the mid term. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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