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Bulgaria Shipping Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Aug. 11, 2009 - 87 Pages Table of Contents
Abstract2009 has been a tough year for the shipping sector - container freight rates have plunged with industryobservers issuing profit warnings for container lines' full-year results. The liquid bulk sector has remainedafloat, as tankers have been used for oil-storage purposes. Dry bulk shipping fortunes have fluctuated -from all-time lows, to showing a steady recovery, to dipping once more - as the sector's fortunes havebecome increasingly tied to China's raw material needs.For the Q409 Bulgaria Shipping Report we have reviewed our forecast data for total tonnage throughputand container volumes for 2009, taking into account, where available, the most recent monthly throughputdata for the port of Varna. BMI has revised its 2009 throughput forecasts for the port downwards. Webelieve that for the whole of 2009 the port's total tonnage throughput will fall by 22.79%. This tonnagerevision has also affected our container throughput prediction for 2009. We now estimate that containervolumes at the port will decline by 33.88%, y-o-y. As 2009 draws to a close, BMI answers the question of what is next for the Bulgarian shipping sector. We predict that a gradual recovery in the country's ports throughput will begin in 2010. This is basedupon the fact that our Country Risk desk is forecasting Bulgaria's total trade to increase by 2.37% in2010. Using the port of Varna as an example, BMI predicts that tonnage throughput at the port will growby 4.63% while container volumes will increase by 8.69% in 2010. This estimate will see the porthandling a total of 6.2mn tonnes and 111,636TEUs in 2010. We expect growth in throughput volumes to continue at the port for the rest of the mid term (2011-2013).We predict that total tonnage throughput at the port of Varna will increase on average by 3.96% per yearduring the forecast period, with container volumes increasing by a yearly average of 6.9%. This growthwill not enable the port of Varna to reclaim its pre-downturn levels of tonnage or container throughput inour forecast window. Bulgaria's port recovery is reliant on a revival in Bulgaria's trade volumes. For the whole of 2009 BMIexpects Bulgaria's imports to decline by 15.00%, and its exports to fall by 14.00%. A gradual recovery isforecast to begin in 2010, with total trade forecast to grow by 2.37%. BMI predicts that over the rest ofthe mid term (2011-2013) the country's total trade will increase by a yearly average of 3.6%. This trade recovery will see the country's import and export worth increase to US$37.1bn and US$26.7bnrespectively by 2013. BMI does not expect the country's current main trade partners of Germany, Russia,Italy, Romania, Ukraine, Greece and Turkey to change dramatically over the mid term. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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