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Brazil Freight Transport Report Q4 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Aug. 6, 2009 - 70 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Brazil Road Haulage Industry SWOT
Brazil Political SWOT
Brazil Economic SWOT
Brazil Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Ratings
Table: Americas Freight Transport Business Environment Rankings
Brazil Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
Economics - Long-Term Risk
Politics - Long-Term Risk
Freight Transport Growth
Transport Infrastructure Growth
Regulatory Environment
Competitive Environment
Political Risk Summary
Economic Risk Summary
Business Environment Risk Summary
Legal Code/Corruption
Table: BMI’s Legal Framework Ratings
Labour Force
Table: Brazil’s Demographic Indicators, 2000-2030
Industry Trends And Developments
Road
Rail
Sea
Industry Forecast Scenario
Global Oil Products Market Review
Table Global Oil Prices, 2003-2013 (US$ per barrel)
Macroeconomic Overview
Table: Brazil - Economic Activity, 2005-2013
Transport Outlook
Table: Transport Industry Economic Scenario, 2006-2013
Table: Freight Carried, Domestic And International, 2006-2013
Trade Environment
Table: Value Of Imports By Category, 2006-2013 (US$mn)
Table: Value Of Exports By Category, 2006-2013 (US$mn)
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2002-2006 (US$mn)
Table: Export Trade, 2003-2006 (% growth y-o-y)
Table: Import Trade, 2003-2006 (% growth y-o-y)
Table: Top Import Sources, 2002-2006 (US$mn)
Market Overview
Multi-Modal
Table: Key Players In The Brazilian Freight Transport Sector
Competitive Landscape: Multi-Modal
Santos Brasil
Table: Santos Brasil’s Financial Performance, 2007 And 2008 (BRLmn)
Road
Infrastructure
Competitive Landscape: Road
Rail
Infrastructure
Competitive Landscape: Rail
América Latina Logística (ALL)
Table: ALL’s Financial Performance, 2007 And 2008 (BRLmn)
Air
Infrastructure
Competitive Landscape: Aviation
GOL Linhas Aereas Inteligentes
Table: GOL Linhas Aereas Inteligentes’ Financial Performance (BRLmn)
Water
Infrastructure
Competitive Landscape: Maritime
Pipelines
Competitive Landscape: Pipelines
Country Snapshot: Brazil Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2000-2003
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 1996-2002
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Transport Industry
Sources

Abstract

Brazil's national maritime transport agency, Antaq, in April announced plans for the construction ofbetween five and 10 new port sites by 2023, according to Brazilian newspaper Folha. The proposals areaimed at increasing the capacity of the country's ports in order to cater for a projected rise in cargomovement. BMI notes that traffic through the country's ports has fallen significantly following a drop inexport volumes since Q408, though we expect traffic to increase over the long term. The study submitted toBrazil's special secretary for ports, Pedro Brito, on April 8 2009 identified 45 sites where new ports couldbe based, which Brito expects will be narrowed down to between five and 10 developments.

In its latest Brazil Freight Transport Report, BMI has set its forecast for annual average growth in freightcarried across all modes over the 2009-2013 period at 3.7%. Various factors support this prediction. Webelieve that despite global economic cooling, the Brazilian economy, which will contract by under 1% thisyear, will manage low to moderate growth during our forecast period. Annual Brazilian GDP growth willaverage 2.3% during the 2009-2013 period (down from 4.7% in the preceding five-year period). This willunderpin general freight demand.

The overall freight picture is encouraging - although work to improve and repair the highway network isstill lagging - as road haulage will grow by an average of 3.0%. The largely privatised rail freight sectorwill do better, aided by Brazil’s commodity export performance, particularly in mining. The rail freightgrowth figure in 2009-2013 will average 3.5% annually. Brazil performs well in our freight transportindustry rating, scoring 77.8 out of 100, significantly above the regional average. Freight growth,infrastructure growth, and the regulatory and competitive environment all score well. Economic andpolitical risk is comparable to the Latin American peer group. Foreign trade still represents only around20% of GDP, although on the other hand the sheer geographical size of the country means there will behealthy internal demand for freight transport.

According to our latest estimates, the total value of transport and communications GDP will rise toUS$126.7bn in nominal terms by 2013, representing 5.4% of Brazil’s GDP. The transport andcommunications sector employed 4.725mn people, or 4.9% of the labour force, in 2008. We see thesefigures rising to 6.0mn - and 5.4% - by 2013.

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