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Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q4 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Aug. 6, 2009 - 60 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Vietnam Agricultural SWOT
Industry Business Environment Overview
Supply Demand Analysis
Vietnam Dairy Outlook
Table: Vietnam Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Vietnam Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Vietnam Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Vietnam Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Vietnam Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Vietnam Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Vietnam Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Vietnam Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
Vietnam Livestock Outlook
Table: Vietnam Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Vietnam Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Vietnam Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Vietnam Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Vietnam Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Vietnam Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Vietnam Rice Outlook
Table: Vietnam Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Vietnam Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Nigeria Rice Outlook
Nigeria Rice Outlook
Table: Nigeria Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Nigeria Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Vietnam Grain Outlook
Table: Vietnam Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Vietnam Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Vietnam Coffee Outlook
Table: Vietnam Coffee Production & Consumption
Table: Vietnam Coffee Production, Consumption & Trade
Vietnam Sugar Outlook
Table: Vietnam Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Vietnam Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Competitive Landscape
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers
Commodity Price Analysis
Corn
Table: Corn
Rice
Table: Rice
Soy
Table: Soybean
Wheat
Table: Wheat
Softs Update
Cocoa
Table: Cocoa
Coffee
Table: Coffee
Milk
Table: Milk
Sugar
Table: Sugar
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis
Industry Forecast Scenario - Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators, 2005-2013
Trade
Confectionery
Table: Value/Volume Sales of Selected Food Subsectors, 2005-2013 (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
Trade
Table: Vietnam Food, Drink & Tobacco Trade Indicators, 2005-2013 (US$mn)
Industry Forecast Scenario - Retail
Table: Vietnam MGR Indicators -- Value Sales By Format, 2005-2013 (US$bn)
Table: Vietnam Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2007 and 2017 (%)
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Vietnam - Economic Activity
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Abstract

Vietnamese rice exporters have been busy restaking their place as major players in the world's rice marketover the past few quarters. Exports through most of 2008 proceeded slowly as the government imposedrestrictions on export volumes in an effort to protect Vietnamese consumers from the spiralling worldprice of rice. This policy saw stocks increase and since restrictions were lifted, rice export volumes haveboomed.

In 2009, we now expect exports for the full year to reach 5.5mn tonnes, up from 4.7mn tonnes in 2008.

Exports could even climb as high as 6mn tonnes if government policy allows. The surge in exports hasbrought the government's rice export policy under scrutiny. The Vietnam Food Association (VFA) inparticular has come in for criticism, as it has been responsible for setting export quotas for individualfirms and provinces.

Exporters have charged that the VFA's policies have been unfairly favourable to large companies.Provinces with large surpluses have complained that they have been unable to export rice while provincesthat struggle to produce enough rice to feed their own inhabitants have large export quotas which can befilled only by bringing in rice from other parts of the country. The government has now scrappedprovincial rice export quotas and in June the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) also accepted thatthere were problems with the current system.

The problem facing the government is balancing the desire to guarantee food at an affordable price forconsumers with providing enough of a profit incentive for farmers to invest in increasing production. Thegovernment has been facing similar problems in other sectors of agriculture, coming under pressure fromlivestock producers to further raise tariffs on imported meat. While obviously good for domestic farmers,such a move will be less welcome for consumers as prices in the shops rise.

Livestock producers have undoubtedly been suffering over the past year as feed prices have squeezedprofits. Despite this, there has been some promising news from the sector. At the end of June 2009, a newchicken farm complex opened in the province of Binh Phuoc near Ho Chi Minh City. There have been anumber of modern poultry farms springing up to supply the southern commercial capital and the area hasattracted investment from major international players such as Thai conglomerate CP Foods.

As with most Vietnamese agricultural sectors, improving efficiency in livestock production will beessential for the long-term health of the sector. As Vietnam's World Trade Organization commitments ontariff reduction begin to take effect, it will be harder to protect domestic producers from cheaper imports.This should help spur investment in modernising agriculture in the country.

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