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Indonesia Agribusiness Report Q4 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Aug. 6, 2009 - 61 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Indonesia Agricultural SWOT
Industry Business Environment Overview
Supply Demand Analysis
Indonesia Coffee Outlook
Table: Indonesia Coffee Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Coffee Production, Consumption & Trade
Indonesia Rice Outlook
Table: Indonesia Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Indonesia Livestock Outlook
Table: Indonesia Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Indonesia Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Indonesia Grains Outlook
Indonesia Grains Outlook
Table: Indonesia Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Indonesia Dairy Outlook
Table: Indonesia Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Indonesia Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Indonesia Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
Indonesia Cocoa Outlook
Table: Indonesia Cocoa Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Cocoa Production, Consumption & Trade
Indonesia Sugar Outlook
Table: Indonesia Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Indonesia Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Competitive Landscape
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers
Commodity Price Analysis
Corn
Table: Corn
Rice
Table: Rice
Soy
Table: Soybean
Wheat
Table: Wheat
Softs Update
Cocoa
Table: Cocoa
Coffee
Table: Coffee
Milk
Table: Milk
Sugar
Table: Sugar
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis
Industry Forecast Scenario - Food
Table: Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Canned Food
Confectionery
Table: Value/Volume Sales, Selected Food Sub-sectors -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Trade
Table: Indonesia Food & Drink Trade Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Forecast Scenario - Retail
Table: Indonesia Mass Grocery Retail Sales by Format
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format (%) -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Macroeconomic Forecast
Indonesia - Economic Activity
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Abstract

The re-election of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to a second term in office in mid-July iswelcome news for Indonesian agriculture. The sprawling country has for decades struggled to produceenough key food staples to feed its vast population of more than 230mn. This has changed in the past yearwith Indonesia now producing enough rice and corn to meet domestic demand and enough sugar forhousehold consumption. All three of these have been long-term goals for successive rulers of thearchipelago.

While Yudhoyono cannot be given all the credit for the achievement, after all even the best policies couldbe undone by a run of poor weather, he has provided a stable investment climate and enough incentivesand aid for farmers to increase production. Yudhoyono, known locally by his initials SBY, has putimproving food security high up on his agenda. With a PhD in agriculture specialising in povertyalleviation through rural development, Yudhoyono is well qualified to be at the helm of building upIndonesia's agriculture.

We expect the progress made over the past few years to be sustained over the president's next term andproduction of staple foods to continue rising. Yudhoyono has spoken of his desire to increase research inagricultural technology to allow the country to emerge as a food exporter to challenge the major regionalagricultural players of Thailand and Vietnam. There is, however, undoubtedly a long way to go beforeIndonesia will be approaching Thailand as a food exporter.

As a massive archipelago of thousands of islands Indonesia faces acute problems with infrastructure.Much potentially promising land away from the overcrowded main island of Java is so distant as to makeprofitable production difficult. Ethnic tensions in areas such as West Papua and Kalimantan also put extrarisk on investment.

While production of staple food crops has been doing well, some key plantation crops have been runninginto problems. Indonesia's cocoa sector is still suffering from the 2008 outbreak of vascular-streakdieback on the main producing island of Sulawesi. We forecast production to fall sharply again this year.Exports will be even harder hit as demand for cocoa suffers owing to the financial crisis. High stockpilesof cocoa butter at Malaysia's cocoa grinders have put a break on exports to that country.

Coffee producers have also been under pressure. Low prices for robusta, which makes up around 90% ofIndonesia's coffee production, has seen profits for growers all but disappear. If prices do not rise soon,producers could be forced to leave the sector leading to further declines in production.

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