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India Agribusiness Report Q4 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Aug. 6, 2009 - 58 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
India Agricultural SWOT
Industry Business Environment Overview
Supply Demand Analysis
India Livestock Outlook
Table: India Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: India Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: India Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: India Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
India Dairy Outlook
Table: India Milk Production & Consumption
Table: India Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: India Milk Production & Consumption
Table: India Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
India Sugar Outlook
Table: India Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: India Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
India Grains Outlook
India Grains Outlook
Table: India Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: India Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: India Sorghum Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: India Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: India Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: India Sorghum Production, Consumption & Trade
India Rice Outlook
Table: India Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: India Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
India Soybean Outlook
Table: India Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: India Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade
India Coffee Outlook
Table: India Coffee Production & Consumption
Table: India Coffee Production, Consumption & Trade
Competitive Landscape
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers
Commodity Price Analysis
Corn
Table: Corn
Rice
Table: Rice
Soy
Table: Soybean
Wheat
Table: Wheat
Softs Update
Cocoa
Table: Cocoa
Coffee
Table: Coffee
Milk
Table: Milk
Sugar
Table: Sugar
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis
Industry Forecast Scenario - Food
Table: India Food Consumption Indicators , 2005-2013
Confectionery
Table: India Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, 2005-2013 (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
Table: Processed Food Industry Indicators, 2005-2013
Trade
Table: India Food & Drink Trade Indicators, 2005-2013 (US$mn)
Industry Forecast Scenario - Retail
Table: India MGR Sales By Format, 2005-2013 (US$bn)
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2007 and 2017 (%)
Macroeconomic Forecast
India - Economic Activity
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Abstract

At the start of July, the annual monsoon finally reached all areas of the country. The poor rains in Junesparked fears that the coming year's agricultural production could be blighted by water shortages. Rainfallin June was 46% down on normal levels according to the India Meteorological Department. The monsoonrains also failed to reach important agricultural areas during the first month of the monsoon. Despite theimproved picture at the start of July, there is still a risk that agriculture could suffer if the rains do notcontinue to come. The shortfall in June has left irrigation systems lower than would be hoped for the timeof year. Rain fed agriculture will be even more badly affected.

While the health of agriculture in India will always be affected by the monsoon, the lack of developmentin the sector makes it far more vulnerable to fluctuations than a more modern agricultural sector wouldbe. A high proportion of Indian agriculture is rain fed with no or very rudimentary irrigation. There arefears that climate change could make weather patterns even less predictable then they are currently. WithIndia's growing and increasingly wealthier population, demand for food is only going to increase. Poorharvests owing to erratic weather would see prices rise and low-income consumers pushed back (orfurther) into poverty. Improvement in agricultural infrastructure is vital to protect the majority of thepopulation still reliant on the land for their income as well as to provide reliable and affordable foodsupplies to the growing urban population.

There are now hopes that following the Congress Party's unexpectedly strong victory in the generalelection of May 2009 more funding will be allocated to improving rural infrastructure - the budget,unveiled at the beginning of July, set out the target of agricluture achieving a 4% yearly growth rate. Thecollapse of sugar production this year to a forecast 14.96mn tonnes from 28.63mn tonnes has fuelledconcerns over the security of agricultural production.

Aside from the expected collapse in sugar production, major crops are on for a good year in 2009. Riceand wheat production are both high for the second year in a row. Government stocks of both grains arenow overflowing following record procurement levels. This should see a relaxation of the exportrestrictions following the national stock take in September.

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