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Egypt Tourism Report Q3 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jul. 30, 2009 - 56 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Egypt Tourism Industry SWOT
Egypt Political SWOT
Egypt Economic SWOT
Egypt Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Egypt’s Tourism Industry, 2006-2013 (US$bn, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Egypt’s Travel Industry, 2006-2013
Market Overview - Travel
Airports
Commercial Airlines
Table: Key Players - Commercial Airlines, Mid-2008
Oil Price Forecast
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q408-Q409 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2006-2013 (US$/bbl)
Market Overview - Hospitality
Table: Hospitality Market Structure, 2003-2007
Accommodation
Companies Present
Accommodation Developments
Tourist Infrastructure
Regional Case Study - Accor
Table: Accor Hotel Business In Selected Middle East And Africa Countries, June 2009
Business Environment
Tourism Business Environment
Table: Middle East And Africa Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
Egypt - Security Risk Ratings
Middle East And North Africa Security Overview
H5N1 Virus: Crisis For Egypt?
Special Report: Tourism And Terrorism
Currency Forecast
Table: BMI’s Egypt Currency Forecasts
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2007-2013
Table: Developed States GDP Growth, 2008-2010
Table: Emerging Markets GDP Growth, 2008-2010
Table: Commodity Prices, 2007-2010
Company Profiles
EgyptAir
Travco
Egyptian General Organisation For Tourism And Hotels (EGOTH)
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings - Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
Sources

Abstract

Tourism Overview

After a slowdown in growth of foreign tourist arrivals in 2008, but still buoyant at 15% year-on-year (y-oy),the tourism sector is experiencing a major slump. The Ministry of Tourism stated that there had been adecline in tourist arrivals of 12% y-o-y in Q109. Moreover, the ministry has agreed to a number ofmeasures to assist the sector at a difficult time, including helping finance promotional campaigns byvarious tourism operators, part-subsidising empty seats on charter flights from Europe to Egypt,exempting hotel establishments from tourism promotion fees, and shifting the emphasis in advertisingcampaigns to promoting Egypt as an affordable leisure destination.

Bird Flu Update

As of the beginning of June 2009 Egypt had confirmed 27 human deaths caused by the H5N1 bird fluvirus, out of a total number of 77 known human infections in Egypt - the largest number outside Asia.These data also confirm that infections have been on the rise recently (particularly among very smallchildren), with a further 26 people infected in the first five months of 2009. The Egyptian authoritiesreported that the latest victim of the virus was a four-year-old girl. Of major concern is that the growingnumber of infections in Egypt raise the prospect that the virus will be spread by humans, which threatensto increase the disease’s ability to spread. In April 2009 Egypt began slaughtering roughly 300,000 pigsin the country as a precautionary measure against the spread of the H1N1 virus or swine flu, although nocases have been reported in Egypt.

Forecast Scenario

BMI believes the deteriorating economic conditions in key source markets, especially the eurozone,Russia and Central and Eastern Europe, and the UK, are likely to result in a sharp fall in foreign touristarrivals this year, with a slight pick up in 2010 (and relatively strong growth from 2011). Against abackdrop of additional downward revisions this quarter to GDP growth forecasts in these major markets,BMI expects a significant decline in foreign visitors of the order of -16% y-o-y in 2009. Our revisedeconomic growth forecasts for the eurozone, Russia and the UK are -4.2%, -7.1% and -4.2%,respectively. A slight recovery in real GDP growth, however, is forecast in the eurozone and Russia for2010.

Cairo International Airport

In April 2009 EgyptAir’s daily service to New York was the inaugural flight to take off from the newTerminal 3 at Cairo International Airport. From May, all domestic flights starting from Cairo operatefrom Terminal 3, while from June all EgyptAir flights operate from the same terminal. In April EgyptAir,the country’s national carrier, opened its new sales office in Champs-Elysees Avenue, in Paris.

bmi

The UK airline bmi, which is a member of Star Alliance, launched it’s wide-bodied aircraft, the AirbusA330, on the Cairo-London (Heathrow) route at the beginning of April 2009. The aircraft offersnumerous benefits to business travelers, as well as introducing a Premium Economy Class on the Cairo-London route.

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