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Mexico Retail Report Q3 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Jul. 30, 2009 - 47 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe BMI Mexico Retail report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from US$711bn in 2008to US$909bn by 2013. Increasing affluence, a growing population - including a large number of youngpeople - and the continuing development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind theforecast growth in Mexico’s retail sales.Mexico’s nominal GDP was US$1,085.72bn in 2008, with a decline of 7.1% now assumed for 2009 asthe economy crashes into reverse. Average annual GDP growth of just 0.3% is predicted by BMI between2008 and 2013. With the population increasing from 106.7mn in 2008 to an estimated 110.8mn by 2013, GDP per capitais forecast to rise 20.5% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$12,264. Our forecast forconsumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$8,741 in 2008 to US$11,919 by 2013.Mexico is the world’s 11th largest country in terms of population. Almost 55% of Mexicans are 24 yearsold or younger, one of the highest percentages for an upper-middle-income economy anywhere in theworld. The proportion of those in the 20-44 age range, crucial for retail sales, is also high (41.0%) and is forecastto rise to 44.9% by 2010, according to UN data. In 2005, 63.6% of Mexicans were described by the UNas ‘active’, and this is forecast to reach 66.3% by 2013. Over the same period, the trend towardsurbanisation is predicted to continue, with the proportion of those living in towns and cities in 2005estimated at 76% by the UN and forecast to reach 77.4% by 2010. Consumer credit is growing at double-digit rates in Mexico. In 2006, banks approved 8.7mn new creditcards, awarding 40% of the new accounts to customers with no previous credit history. Credit cardconsumer spending reached about US$37bn in 2006. Retail sub-sectors forecast to show strong growth between 2008 and 2013 include food and drink, up43.7%, from US$64.48bn to US$92.64bn; over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals, up 23.5%, fromUS$1.30bn to US$1.61bn; and consumer electronics, up 39.9%, from US$10.62bn to US$14.87bn.Automotive sales are predicted to rise by just 3.8% during the forecast period, from US$17.80 toUS$20.59bn. Retail sales for our universe of Latin American countries in 2008 amounted to an estimated US$1,654bn,based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’smacroeconomic database amounts to US$2,630bn. Argentina, Brazil and Mexico together in 2008accounted for an estimated 76.8% of regional retail sales, with their combined share expected to slip to76.1% by 2013. Mexico’s estimated 2008 market share of 43.0% is expected to fall to 40.8% by 2013. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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