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Cote d'Ivoire Business Forecast Report Q4 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Jul. 29, 2009 - 52 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractAll Eyes On The November 2009 ElectionsAlthough the Ivorian government has announced November 29 2009 as the new date for presidentialelections, serious doubts remain as to whether the authorities will be able to conduct peacefuland credible polls later this year. For sure, development assistance from the IMF and prospectsfor HIPC debt relief provide powerful incentives for all parties involved to speed up preparationsand stick to the approved timetable. However, deep-rooted structural problems present powerfulobstacles to those, both in the government and ex-rebel camps, who are genuinely working towardsCote d’Ivoire’s democratic future and economic development. In our view, Cote d’Ivoire’s economyundoubtedly has significant upside potential over the coming years - after all, until the mid-1990sit was West Africa’s economic powerhouse. Yet ongoing uncertainty over its political future raisesserious questions over its medium-term growth prospects. The successful completion of the presidential elections will only be the first step towards politicalnormalisation and economic recovery. Even if the government and the former rebels finally manageto overcome this hurdle, the reality is that Cote d’Ivoire has no track record of stable, multipartydemocracy. This is not to say that Cote d’Ivoire’s polity is incapable of mastering this task, yetit will require immense political will, discipline and vision to jointly work towards full political andeconomic reunification. In our view, the de-militarization and development of former rebel territorieswill be key to long-term stability. With Cote d’Ivoire potentially reaching the HIPC debt relief completion point by the end of 2011, thenation could see a significant boost to its sovereign credit rating over the next three years, assumingthat the government and the former rebels have managed to hold peaceful elections by then. Already, the nation has reached the HIPC decision point in March 2009 and received US$850mnin debt cancellations by the Paris Club in May 2009, a development which increased investors’confidence that the country is on the right track to improve its international creditworthiness. Asoutlined by the IMF, Cote d’Ivoire could obtain debt relief to the tune of US$3.0bn, which woulddecrease its public external liabilities to US$7.9bn (30.5% of GDP) by end-2011. Strikes by dock workers led to significant disruptions at the port of Abidjan in June 2009. Asidefrom causing a decline in real cocoa exports and customs revenues, the fact that inbound shipshad to dock at neighbouring ports led to a shortage of food supplies. While the strike, which startedover a pay dispute, was resolved at the end of June and activity in the country’s main port hassince returned to normal, a resumption could lead to a significant shortfall in cocoa exports forthe 2008/09 season. The International Cocoa Organisation already forecasts Cote d’Ivoire’s totalcocoa output for the 2008/2009 season will decline by 11.5% y-o-y to 1.22mn tonnes, from 1.38mntonnes in the previous season. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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