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Credit Crunch Update: No Green Shoots in EU Retailing Q1/2 2009

Published by: Verdict Research Ltd

Published: Jul. 17, 2009 - 70 Pages


Table of Contents


CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Key Findings
Main Conclusions
CHAPTER 2 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Main Messages
GDP Top 10
GDP Top 10
GDP Top 10 Forecasts - Bleak Outlook
GDP: Midranking Eight
GDP Midranking Eight - Growth Erosion
GDP: Smaller Nine
GDP Smaller Nine - Growth Erosion Bad For Baltics
Consumer Expenditure
Structure
Inflation Falls Rapidly At End-2008
HICP Annual Averages
Savings Rate To Increase Sharply
Euro Interest Rate Turns Downward
Other Interest Rates
Unemployment - Lagging Indicator
CHAPTER 3 EUROPEAN MARKET - RETAIL SPENDING
Latest Expenditure Trends
CHAPTER 4 MAJOR STORIES
Lidl starts selling cars
Arcandor goes bust
CHAPTER 5 CURRENT TRADING UPDATES
March
April
May
Grocery
Clothing
Other sectors
June
CHAPTER 6 STRATEGIC SECTION
Key Issues
As we predicted, Deflation remains the Major Threat
Discounters and the Reaction Depress Prices Further
Threat of Deflation in Wider Economy
CHAPTER 7 THE POLICY RESPONSE
The G20 and its impact on the retail sector: Boosting consumer and retailer confidence
CHAPTER 8 THE RETAILERS’ RESPONSE
Private label development
CHAPTER 9 GLOSSARY
Definitions
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Monthly HICP rates y-o-y Nov 2008 - Apr 2009
Table 2: Monthly Unemployment rates y-o-y Oct 2008 - Mar 2009
Table 3: Monthly retail growth rates y-o-y Oct 2008 - Mar 2009
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: GDP: Top 10 countries in European Union 2008e
Figure 2: GDP change % forecast for Top 10 EU countries 2008 & 2009
Figure 3: GDP: Midsize Eight (€100bn+) of other 17 countries in EU 2008e
Figure 4: GDP change % forecast for Midsize Eight (€100bn+) of other 17 EU countries 2008 & 2009
Figure 5: GDP: Smaller Nine (€100bn-) of other 17 countries in EU 2008e
Figure 6: GDP change % forecast for Smaller Nine (€100bn-) of other 17 EU countries 2008 & 2009
Figure 7: Consumer expenditure of Top 10 EU countries 2007
Figure 8: Countries among other 17 in EU with consumer expenditure of €18bn+ 2007
Figure 9: Countries among other 17 in EU with consumer expenditure of €18bn- 2007
Figure 10: Consumer expenditure as % of GDP 2007
Figure 11: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices - annual average growth of Top 10 EU countries 2007 & 2008
Figure 12: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices - countries among other 17 in EU with annual averages over 4.5% 2007 & 2008
Figure 13: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices - countries among other 17 in EU with annual averages under 4.5% 2007 & 2008
Figure 14: Gross household saving % of gross household disposable income (latest data) 2007
Figure 15: ECB interest rates 2005-2009
Figure 16: Central bank annual averages for key reference interest rates 2008
Figure 17: Alsterhaus Hamburg
Figure 18: EU HICP - monthly food price change May 2008-Apr 2009 (y-o-y)
Figure 19: Oil spot price FOB weighted by estimated export volume ($/ barrel) - monthly Mar 2008 - May 2009
Figure 20: Downward spiral of grocery prices in 2009

Abstract

Introduction

Most consumers in the EU have reached the peak of private indebtedness, as unemployment rates are rising, consumer confidence is dipping and consumer credit becomes increasingly hard to get hold of. This brief provides an update on this contracting economic activity.

Scope
  • Macro economic data on 27 markets, structural indicators and forecasts for each of the 27 EU countries.
  • Analysis of the major threats in the market, price developments and the immediate response of European governments and retailers.
  • Detailed chapters on three months of trading updates from the EU, with recent developments and future outlook.
  • Appraisal of strategic issues, Lidl's latest initiatives and Arcandor's insolvency, Germany's biggest casualty of the crisis so far.
Highlights

We find ourselves slogging through the bleakest economic landscape most of us have known in our lifetimes. Verdict expects that the recession in the EU will end sometime perhaps as early as 2010. That would make it the longest and probably deepest downturn since the Great Depression.

Eventually, old and broken down goods will need to be replaced, and the resulting demand will drive economic and retail sales growth. That said, we expect the pace of the recovery will be extremely slow. We are not through the worst yet. We believe that yet more retail casualties such as Arcandor are around the corner.

We are also sceptical about capacity shifts. While insolvencies are usually good news for rival surviving retailers as they stand to gain market share, we are now operating under conditions of severe financial stress and consumer confidence at rock bottom levels. This means that capacity might simply disappear altogether as demand collapses.

Reasons to Purchase
  • Learn how difficult market conditions are driving competition among retailers and what the outlook for EU retail will be in the short to mid-term.
  • Understand how evolving consumer behaviour is forcing retailers to develop new product, sales and marketing strategies in a profoundly changed market.
  • Identify the remaining success stories and growth prospects of the key markets and competitors and benchmark their performance.


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