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Singapore Tourism Report Q3 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jul. 17, 2009 - 50 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
Singapore Tourism Sector SWOT
Singapore Political SWOT
Singapore Economic SWOT
Singapore Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Tourism outlook
Attracting The BTMICE Market
Table: Singapore’s Travel Industry, 2006-2013 (mn people, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Singapore’s Tourism Industry, 2006-2013 (US$bn unless otherwise stated)
Market Overview - Travel
Commercial Airlines
Budget Airlines
Table: Singapore’s Low-Cost Airlines - Key Players, 2009
Liberalising The Lucrative Kuala Lumpur-Singapore Route
Quarterly Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q408-Q409 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2006-2013 (US$/bbl)
Cruises
Market Overview - Hospitality
Accommodation
Table: Singapore’s Hospitality Market Structure, 2006-2013
Raffles To Have New Ownership?
Key Players
Integrated resorts opening soon
Infrastructure
Business Environment
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Terrorism Risk Rating
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Conflict Rating
Physical Safety Risk Rating
Currency Forecast
SGD: Modest Depreciation In 2009
BMI SINGAPORE CURRENCY FORECASTS
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2007-2013
Table: Developed States GDP Growth, 2008-2010
Table: Emerging Markets GDP Growth, 2008-2010
Table: Commodity Prices, 2007-2010
H5N1 And H1N1 Virus Update
Company Profiles
Singapore Airlines (SIA)
Tiger Airways
Country Snapshot: Singapore Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2000-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2000-2004
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings -Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
Sources

Abstract

A Difficult Time Ahead

Singapore’s tourism industry has experienced a difficult start to 2009. The first three months of the yearsaw double-digit declines in arrivals figures on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis. April figures showed a slightimprovement, with arrivals down by 6.1%, at 780,000, according to figures released by the SingaporeTourism Board (STB). Year-to-date, 3.03mn tourists have arrived in the city state.

Given this disappointing start to the year, it is clear that the risk to BMI’s forecast of 9.9mn visitors for2009 now lies very much to the downside. However, we would prefer to wait for more data to come outover the summer months before moving to change our arrivals forecast for the current year.

Integrated Resorts Opening Soon

In June 2009, the first details surrounding some of the hotel rooms on offer at the new SGD6.59bnSentosa integrated resort were unveiled. Showrooms for the Maxims Tower, Hotel Michael, Festive Hoteland the Hard Rock Hotel Singapore were opened for public viewing. The 120-room Maxims Tower and470-room Hotel Michael are both pitched at the luxury end of the market. The 398-room Festive Hotel ispitched at the family market, with brightly coloured décor and loft sleeping areas within the bedrooms forchildren. Lastly, the 364-room Hard Rock Hotel Singapore is pitched at the young adult market. Bookingsfor these new hotels will open in H209. Other attractions on offer at Sentosa will include a UniversalStudios theme park, a casino and the world’s largest oceanarium.

BMI believes that these new resorts will do much to boost Singapore’s tourist industry significantly from2010 onwards.

Challenging Operating Environment For Tourism Companies

The current global economic slowdown is providing a challenging backdrop for companies operatingwithin the Singaporean tourism industry at present. Hotel occupancy rates in Singapore are falling anddomestic airline Singapore Airlines saw a 48.2% fall in its net profits over FY08/09. BMI will continueto monitor the situation in Singapore to see if any further changes to our tourism forecasts provenecessary.

Addition Of Coverage On Swine Flu

May 2009 saw Singapore confirm its first case of the H1N1 virus (swine flu). To that end, BMI has addedcoverage of swine flu to our existing coverage of avian flu. More information can be found on pages 33-34 of this report.

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