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Indonesia Tourism Report Q3 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jul. 17, 2009 - 52 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Indonesia Tourism Sector SWOT
Indonesia Political SWOT
Indonesia Economic SWOT
Indonesia Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Indonesia Travel, 2005-2013 (mn people, unless otherwise stated)
Tourism Outlook
Indonesia Losing Tourism Competitiveness
Table: Indonesia’s Tourism Industry, 2006-2013 (US$bn unless otherwise stated)
Market Overview - Travel
Commercial Airlines
Safety Concerns
Quarterly Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q408-Q409 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2006-2013 (US$/bbl)
Market Overview - Hospitality
Accommodation
Table: Hotel Occupancy Rates in 10 Indonesian resort destinations 2008
Table: Indonesia’s Accommodation Market Structure, 2006-2013
Infrastructure
Business Environment
Table: Asia Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Regional Security: South East Asia
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Indonesia’s Security Risk Ratings
Monetary Policy
Indonesia - Monetary Policy
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2007-2013
Table: Developed States GDP Growth, 2008-2010
Table: Emerging Markets GDP Growth, 2008-2010
Table: Commodity Prices, 2007-2010
H5N1 And H1N1 Virus Update
Company Profiles
Garuda Indonesia
Accor Asia Pacific Indonesia (AAPC)
Lion Air
Country Snapshot: Indonesia Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2000-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2010 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 (IDR)
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings - Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
Sources

Abstract

Steady Start To 2009

Indonesia had a relatively strong start to 2009 according to tourist arrivals data. About 1.82mn touristsvisited the archipelago over the January-April period, representing annual growth of 1.35%, according tofigures from the Central Bureau of Statistics (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS). At a time when its neighboursare struggling with falling visitor numbers, this is an impressive result.

Looking forward, Indonesia should continue to benefit from its status as a ‘low-cost’ Asian holidaydestination. It has not been as affected by the ongoing credit crunch as some of its peers have. However, itis hard to see how the country will entirely escape from the ongoing economic crisis gripping developedworld markets. We still believe that a very slight fall in tourist arrival numbers is the best case scenariofor 2009, with 2010 proving essentially flat. Beyond this point however, we see scope for a rapid reboundin the industry as demand returns. Fundamentally, BMI remains upbeat on the long-term potential forIndonesian tourism.

Difficult Operating Environment

The current global economic slowdown is providing a challenging backdrop for companies operatingwithin the Indonesian tourism industry at present. A report in The Jakarta Post underlined the seriousnessof the current situation, quoting Harry Waluyo, director of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism’s Dataand Network Centre, as saying that the domestic tourism industry could lose 20% of its workforce,4.41mn people.

BMI will continue to monitor the situation in Indonesia to see if any further changes to our tourismforecasts prove necessary. For now, the country’s attraction as a ‘low-cost’ destination is insulating itfrom some of the turmoil gripping other Asian tourism sectors.

EU Team In Jakarta To Discuss Airline Safety

Indonesian airlines are banned from entering either the EU’s or the US’ airspace. These bans wereimplemented by the relevant civil aviation authorities in 2007 following concern that Indonesian aviationstandards were not in compliance with the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). In June2009, a team of EU officials arrived in Jakarta to discuss the country’s aviation industry.

According to a report in the Jakarta Globe, the ICAO previously identified 69 recommendations onsafety regulations that Indonesia needs to meet before the EU will consider lifting its ban. The newspaperquoted Minister of Transportation Jusman Syafii Djamal saying that so far 66 of the recommendationshad been fulfilled, with the three remaining recommendations being addressed at the time.

However, there is no word yet on whether the EU or the US are considering lifting the bans on Indonesianaircraft entering their airspace. Although no Indonesian carriers were flying to the EU when the ban wasintroduced, it acts as a deterrent to European travellers wanting to travel around the country on domesticflights, as European travel agents are obliged to warn their clients about the risks of travelling by air.

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