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United States Agribusiness Report Q3 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jul. 10, 2009 - 58 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
United States Agricultural SWOT
Industry Business Environment Overview
Market Overview
Supply Demand Analysis
Industry Forecast - US Grains Outlook
United States Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: United States Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: United States Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: United States Sorghum Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: United States Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: United States Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: United States Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: United States Sorghum Production, Consumption & Trade
Industry Forecast - US Soy Outlook
Table: United States Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: United States Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade
Industry Forecast - US Sugar Outlook
United States Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
United States Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Industry Forecast - US Dairy Outlook
Table: United States Milk Production & Consumption
United States Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table; United States Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: United States Milk Production & Consumption
Table: United States Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: United States Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Industry Forecast - US Livestock Outlook
Table: United States Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: United States Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: United States Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: United States Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: United States Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: United States Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Industry Forecast - US Rice Outlook
Table: United States Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Table; United States Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Competitive Landscape
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers
Market Strategy - Grains Update
Corn
Table: Corn
Soybean
Table: Soybean
Rice
Table: Rice
Wheat
Table: Wheat
Market Strategy Softs Update
Cocoa
Table: Cocoa
Coffee
Table Coffee
Milk
Table: Milk
Sugar
Table: Sugar
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis
Industry Forecast Scenario - Food
Table: US Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Volume/Value Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Canned Food
Table: Canned Food Volume/Value Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Trade
Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators (US$mn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Forecast Scenario - Retail
Table: United States MGR Value Sales by Format (US$bn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Sales Breakdown by Retail Format Type (%)
Macroeconomic Outlook
Is The Worst Over?
United States - Economic Activity
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Company News Alert
Drosed Eyeing Expansion

Abstract

In BMI's US Agribusiness Report for Q3 2009 we begin to look at the outlook for the 2010 harvest. Nextyear we expect production of grain to fall back from the high levels estimated for 2009. This year abumper wheat crop in the US and its northern neighbour Canada has put pressure on prices. Prices werealready suffering from flagging demand owing to the poor state of the livestock industry in the twocountries and sluggish demand on the export market. In 2010, we expect only a small recovery in pricesdespite a forecast large fall in production on both sides of the border.

US soybean producers have been seeing far better fortunes so far in 2009. A devastating drought in thesouthern end of South America has seen harvests drop sharply in the US's main competitors on the exportmarket, Brazil and Argentina. This has sent prices of soybeans back up after the fall through the secondhalf of 2008. By June 2009, exports of soybeans for the market year (September 2008-August 2009) werealready around 3mn tonnes higher than the level seen at the same time last year. Despite an estimated10.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in production in 2009, the increased demand has caused stocks to fall torecord low levels. This will further support prices through the remainder of the year.

The real driver behind the growth in US soybean exports is China. By June 2009, US soybean exports toChina for the year had already reached 17.12mn tonnes, up from 12.00mn at the same period last year.Rapid growth in China is allowing the country's massive population to spend more on higher value foodssuch as meat. The expansion of China's livestock industry as well as growing demand for edible oils isleading the country's soybean consumption to climb ever higher. In future years once harvests in SouthAmerican producers return to more normal levels US exports will have increased competition. However,China's insatiable demand for the beans will see US production continue to rise in coming years.

The US's own livestock sector is still looking in poor shape. Producers have continued to draw down thesize of their herds. We forecast falls in production of beef, pork and poultry this year. An expectedrecovery in hog prices in April and May was subdued by the outbreak of H1N1 'swine flu' temporarilydenting demand for pork. Demand for all meat is being hit by the poor economic conditions - BMI is nowforecasting the US economy to contract 3.3% this year. Feed costs, while down from the highs of 2008,are still high on a historical basis. Dairy farmers have also been cutting their herds as dairy prices havestayed low. It will take some years before cattle herds can be built back up and we forecast output of bothbeef and milk to fall again in 2010.

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