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Asia Pacific: Mobile Market Analysis and Forecasts

Published by: Informa Media and Telecom

Published: Jun. 1, 2009 - 212 Pages


Table of Contents


FOREWORD

Financial crisis hits Asia’s net adds and revenues

Slowdown has impact on net adds

Figure 1: China Mobile net adds, 1Q07-4Q08

Figure 2: Asia Pacific selected markets’ net addition decreases, 3Q08-4Q08

Revenues also take a dive

Harder to raise capex

Operators turn to opex savings

Will the financial crisis spur M&A?



CHAPTER 1 REGIONAL OVERVIEW

Rural growth to fuel Asia’s 2.5 billion subscriptions by 2012

Figure 1.1: Asia Pacific subscriptions forecast, 2009-2013

Figure 1.2: Asia Pacific subscriptions, subscribers and penetration forecast, 2009-2013

China and India dominate growth

Figure 1.3: Asia Pacific subscription net adds and penetration forecast, 2009-2013

Still growth opportunities to be had, despite rising penetration

Figure 1.4: Asia Pacific penetration forecast, 2009-2013

Prepaid to increase share of subs mix

Figure 1.5: Asia Pacific prepaid subscription forecasts, 2009-2013

Figure 1.6: Asia Pacific subscription forecasts by country, 2009-2013



CHAPTER 2 NETWORKS AND TECHNOLOGY

Subscriptions will be migrated steadily to more advanced networks and services

Figure 2.1: Asia Pacific subscriptions forecast by technology generation, 2009-2013

GPRS/EDGE viewed as interim technology

Figure 2.2: Asia Pacific GSM/GPRS subscriptions and net additions forecast,
2009-2013

CDMA hampered by technology defectors

Figure 2.3: Asia Pacific CDMA subscriptions forecast, 2009-2013

HSPA to overtake WCDMA as early as 2011

Figure 2.4: Asia Pacific WCDMA/HSPA subscriptions and net additions forecast, 2009-2013

Japan to top HSPA market

Figure 2.5: Selected Asia Pacific 3G/3.5G subscriptions forecast, 2013

HSPA success to hurt WiMAX

What does this mean for WiMAX in the rest of Asia?



CHAPTER 3 REVENUE AND ARPU TREND

Figure 3.1: Asia Pacific year-on-year growth in revenues versus subscriptions forecast, 2009-2013

Data revenues push past 30% barrier

3G is catalyst for data revenue increase

Figure 3.2: Asia Pacific mobile operator voice and data revenue forecast, 2009-2013

Developing markets feel ARPU crunch

Prepaid subs count rising

Data significant in developed markets

Figure 3.3: Asia Pacific voice and data ARPU forecast, 2009-2013



CHAPTER 4 MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

Regulation focuses on MNP introduction and lowering MTRs

MTRs

MNP

Roaming

Roaming price study

Figure 4.1: Asia Pacific average per minute roaming rates, 2Q08

Region will become world leader in messaging and content services

Figure 4.2: Asia Pacific mobile content and services revenues forecast by type, 2009-2013

SMS to dominate

Figure 4.3: Asia Pacific mobile messaging revenues forecast by type, 2009-2013

Non-SMS data revenues on rise

Figure 4.4: Asia Pacific non-SMS data revenue, selected operators, 3Q07-3Q08

Music will drive entertainment revenues

Figure 4.5: Asia Pacific mobile entertainment revenues forecast by type, 2009-2013



CHAPTER 5 INVESTMENT STRATEGY

Figure 5.1: Asian M&A deals, 3Q08-4Q08

Figure 5.2: India versus China net adds, 1Q07-3Q08

India attracts more investors

Figure 5.3: India market capitalization-persubscription valuations, 3Q08

China gives 3G licensing OK



CHAPTER 6 AUSTRALIA

Mobile market overview

Figure 6.1: Australia mobile subscriptions by country and operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market regulation

Mobile market analysis

2Q08 market update

Figure 6.2: Australia blended ARPU, 2Q05-2Q08

3Q08 market update

Figure 6.3: Australia mobile subscriptions by operator and technology, 3Q08

Company information

Figure 6.4: Australia mobile market shares by operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market forecasts

Figure 6.5: Australia mobile market forecasts, 2009-2013



CHAPTER 7 BANGLADESH

Mobile market overview

Figure 7.1: Bangladesh mobile subscriptions by country and operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market regulation

Mobile market analysis

2Q08 market update

Figure 7.2: Bangladesh EBITDA by operator, 1Q08 and 2Q08

3Q08 market update

Figure 7.3: Bangladesh mobile subscriptions by operator and technology, 3Q08

Company information

Figure 7.4: Bangladesh mobile market shares by operator, 3Q07-3Q08



CHAPTER 8 CAMBODIA

Mobile market overview

Figure 8.1: Cambodia mobile subscriptions by country and operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market regulation

Mobile market analysis

2Q08 market update

3Q08 market update

Figure 8.2: Cambodia mobile subscriptions by operator and technology, 3Q08

Company information

Figure 8.3: Cambodia mobile market shares by operator, 3Q07-3Q08



CHAPTER 9 CHINA

Mobile market overview

Figure 9.1: China mobile subscriptions* by country and operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market regulation

Mobile market analysis

2Q08 market update

Downward pressure on ARPU

Unicom to complete restructuring

More competition in 3G era

3Q08 update

Figure 9.2: China mobile subscriptions by operator and technology, 3Q08

Figure 9.3: China Mobile monthly ARPU, 3Q07-3Q08

Unicom growth slows

Telecom re-launches CDMA

Company information

Figure 9.4: China mobile market shares by operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market forecasts

Figure 9.5: China mobile market forecasts, 2009-2013



CHAPTER 10 HONG KONG

Mobile market overview

Figure 10.1: Hong Kong mobile subscriptions by country and operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market regulation

Mobile market analysis

2Q08 market update

3 launches iPhone

SmarTone-Vodafone to offer fixed

3Q08 market update

Figure 10.2: Hong Kong mobile subscriptions by operator and technology, 3Q08

Hutchison launches iPhone

New price plans

Company information

Figure 10.3: Hong Kong mobile market shares by operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market forecasts

Figure 10.4: Hong Kong mobile market forecasts, 2009-2013



CHAPTER 11 INDIA

Mobile market overview

Figure 11.1: India mobile subscriptions by country and operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market regulation

Mobile market analysis

2Q08 market update

3G iPhone arrives

3Q08 market update

Figure 11.2: India mobile subscriptions by operator and technology, 3Q08

Figure 11.3: India, Idea realized rate per minute, 2Q07-3Q08

Company information

Figure 11.4: India mobile market shares by operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market forecasts

Figure 11.5: India mobile market forecasts, 2009-2013



CHAPTER 12 INDONESIA

Mobile market overview

Figure 12.1: Indonesia mobile subscriptions by country and operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market regulation

Mobile market analysis

2Q08 market update

Figure 12.2: Indonesia leading operators’ MOU, 2Q07-2Q08

3Q08 market update

Figure 12.3: Indonesia mobile subscriptions by operator and technology, 3Q08

Company information

Figure 12.4: Indonesia mobile market shares by operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market forecasts

Figure 12.5: Indonesia mobile market forecasts, 2009-2013



CHAPTER 13 JAPAN

Mobile market overview

Figure 13.1: Japan mobile subscriptions by country and operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market regulation

Mobile market analysis

2Q08 market update

3Q08 market update

Figure 13.2: Japan mobile subscriptions by operator and technology, 3Q08

Figure 13.3: Japan churn rates, 4Q06-3Q08

Company information

Figure 13.4: Japan mobile market shares by operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market forecasts

Figure 13.5: Japan mobile market forecasts, 2009-2013



CHAPTER 14 MALAYSIA

Mobile market overview

Figure 14.1: Malaysia mobile subscriptions by country and operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market regulation

Mobile market analysis

2Q08 market update

Digi lacks mobile broadband

3Q08 market update

Figure 14.2: Malaysia mobile subscriptions by operator and technology, 3Q08

Company information

Figure 14.3: Malaysia mobile market shares by operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market forecasts

Figure 14.4: Malaysia mobile market forecasts, 2009-2013



CHAPTER 15 NEPAL

Mobile market overview

Figure 15.1: Nepal mobile subscriptions by country and operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market regulation

Mobile market analysis

2Q08 market update

First ADSL for Nepal

3Q08 market update

Figure 15.2: Nepal mobile subscriptions by operator and technology, 3Q08

Company information

Figure 15.3: Nepal mobile market shares by operator, 3Q07-3Q08



CHAPTER 16 NEW ZEALAND

Mobile market overview

Figure 16.1: New Zealand mobile subscriptions by country and operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market regulation

Mobile market analysis

2Q08 market update

3Q08 market update

Figure 16.2: New Zealand mobile subscriptions by operator and technology, 3Q08

Company information

Figure 16.3: New Zealand mobile market shares by operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market forecasts

Figure 16.4: New Zealand mobile market forecasts, 2009-2013



CHAPTER 17 PAKISTAN

Mobile market overview

Figure 17.1: Pakistan mobile subscriptions by country and operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market regulation

Mobile market analysis

2Q08 market update

3Q08 market update

Figure 17.2: Pakistan mobile subscriptions by operator and technology, 3Q08

Company information

Figure 17.3: Pakistan mobile market shares by operator, 3Q07-3Q08



CHAPTER 18 PHILIPPINES

Mobile market overview

Figure 18.1: Philippines mobile subscriptions by country and operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market regulation

Mobile market analysis

2Q08 market update

3Q08 market update

Figure 18.2: Philippines mobile subscriptions by operator and technology, 3Q08

Company information

Figure 18.3: Philippines market share by operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market forecasts

Figure 18.4: Philippines mobile market forecasts, 2009-2013



CHAPTER 19 SINGAPORE

Mobile market overview

Figure 19.1: Singapore mobile subscriptions* by county and operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market regulation

Mobile market analysis

2Q08 market update

3Q08 market update

Figure 19.2: Singapore mobile subscriptions by operator and technology, 3Q08

Company information

Figure 19.3: Singapore market shares by operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market forecasts

Figure 19.4: Singapore mobile market forecasts, 2009-2013



CHAPTER 20 SOUTH KOREA

Mobile market overview

Figure 20.1: South Korea mobile subscriptions by country and operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market regulation

Mobile market analysis

2Q08 market update

Figure 20.2: South Korea WCDMA & EV-DO net additions, 2Q06-1Q08

3Q08 market update

Figure 20.3: South Korea mobile subscriptions by operator and technology, 3Q08

Company information

Figure 20.4: South Korea mobile market shares by operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market forecasts

Figure 20.5: South Korea mobile market forecasts, 2009-2013



CHAPTER 21 SRI LANKA

Mobile market overview

Figure 21.1: Sri Lanka mobile subscriptions by country and operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market regulation

Mobile market analysis

2Q08 market update

3Q08 market update

Figure 21.2: Sri Lanka mobile subscriptions by operator and technology, 3Q08

Company information

Figure 21.3: Sri Lanka mobile market shares by operator, 3Q07-3Q08



CHAPTER 22 TAIWAN

Mobile market overview

Figure 22.1: Taiwan mobile subscriptions by country and operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market regulation

Mobile market analysis

2Q08 market update

Vibo targets one million subs

CHT benefits from MNP

3Q08 market update

Figure 22.2: Taiwan mobile subscriptions by operator and technology, 3Q08

CHT expands 3G numbers

FET’s data card success

Company information

Figure 22.3: Taiwan mobile market shares by operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market forecasts

Figure 22.4: Taiwan mobile market forecasts, 2009-2013



CHAPTER 23 THAILAND

Mobile market overview

Figure 23.1: Thailand mobile subscriptions by country and operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market regulation

Mobile market analysis

2Q08 market update

Prepaid dilutes ARPU

3Q08 market update

Figure 23.2: Thailand mobile subscriptions by operator and technology, 3Q08

Figure 23.3: Thailand data ARPU (THB),top three operators, 3Q06-3Q08 . . . . . . . . . 193

Company information

Figure 23.4: Thailand mobile market shares by operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market forecasts

Figure 23.5: Thailand mobile market forecasts, 2009-2013



CHAPTER 24 VIETNAM

Mobile market overview

Figure 24.1: Vietnam mobile subscriptions by country and operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Mobile market regulation

Mobile market analysis

2Q08 market update

3Q08 market update

Figure 24.2: Vietnam mobile subscriptions by operator and technology, 3Q08

Company information

Figure 24.3: Vietnam mobile market shares by operator, 3Q07-3Q08

Abstract

Asia Pacific: Mobile Market Analysis and Forecasts analyses in detail key developments and markets in this prominent region. The report studies key markets including Australia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Nepal, New Zealand, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.

Key Coverage

  • Forecasts to 2013 - unique forecasts for subscriptions, voice and data revenues, ARPU and technology growth, allowing you to assess the future developments of each market, and the region as a whole.
  • Comprehensive regional summary - provides an invaluable insight into the current status of regional and global operators’ footprints, acquisition strategies and ambitions
  • 19 in-depth country profiles - supplies a status update of each key market, including significant technology, licence and investment developments, subscriber numbers and operator market share. Plus 13 countries with operator level forecasts
  • Details of new license awards and technology developments - reviews all the latest developments and planned launches in the region
  • Expert commentary from industry analysts - puts the figures and forecasts into context whilst identifying key trends and explaining their significance to the market
Please Note: Informa requires that clients sign a confidentiality agreement prior to fulfillment of all orders. Fulfillment may take 2-3 days after receipt of form.

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