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UK Christmas Sales: Insight for 2009

Published by: Verdict Research Ltd

Published: Jun. 30, 2009 - 31 Pages


Table of Contents


VERDICT VIEW
CATALYST
SUMMARY
ANALYSIS
Key Trends Emerging from Christmas 2008
Retail Sales in Q4 2008 - A Steadily Declining Trend, Buoyed by Food Inflation
Sector Context
Retailer Trends
Food & Grocery - Bargain Hunting
Clothing & Footwear - Childrenswear, Lingerie and Young Fashion Outperform, But Value Doesn't
Books, Music, Video & Games - Diversification, Consolidation and Capitulation
General Retailers - Simplicity Wins Out
Electricals - Tough Times for Most
Department Stores - Polarisation in Presents
Other Specialist Retailers - Shoppers Turn to Pets, Hobbies and Health
Home - Serious Concerns
Action Points
Consumers are rethinking their shopping behaviours - providing an opportunity to connect
Marketing should associate brand with shoppers' current outlook
Improved customisation of offer by individual store location and needs of its catchment area
For stronger retailers, there are plentiful opportunities to expand
Flex offer to reflect growth markets. Capitalise on gaps left by fallen rivals
Review price architecture. Focus on 'value' not 'price'.
Multichannel offer increasingly important
List of Tables
Table 1: Key trends in UK retail Christmas 2008
Table 2: Retail sales Q4, 2008 vs 2007 and 2006
Table 3: Retailers in administration by sector January 08-February 09
Table 4: Median sector y-o-y change % in like-for-like UK Christmas sales 2008 and 2007
Table 5: Median sector total y-o-y change % in UK Christmas sales 2008 and 2007
Table 6: Sector winners & losers Christmas 2008
Table 7: Food & grocery retailers like-for-like change % in UK Christmas sales 2008 and 2007
Table 8: Food & grocery retailers total change % in UK Christmas sales 2008 and 2007
Table 9: Store-based clothing retailers like-for-like change % in UK Christmas sales 2008 and 2007
Table 10: Store-based clothing retailers total change % in UK Christmas sales 2008 and 2007
Table 11: Online/home shopping clothing specialists like-for-like change % in UK Christmas sales 2008 and 2007
Table 12: Books, music, video & games retailers like-for-like change % in UK Christmas sales 2008 and 2007
Table 13: Books, music, video & games retailers total change % in UK Christmas sales 2008 and 2007
Table 14: General retailers like-for-like change % in UK Christmas sales 2008 and 2007
Table 15: General retailers total change % in UK Christmas sales 2008 and 2007
Table 16: Electricals retailers like-for-like change % in UK Christmas sales 2008 and 2007
Table 17: Electricals retailers total change % in UK Christmas sales 2008 and 2007
Table 18: Department stores like-for-like change % in UK Christmas sales 2008 and 2007
Table 19: Department stores total change % in UK Christmas sales 2008 and 2007
Table 20: Other specialist retailers like-for-like change % in UK Christmas sales 2008 and 2007
Table 21: Other specialist retailers total change % in UK Christmas sales 2008 and 2007
Table 22: Home products retailers like-for-like change % in UK Christmas sales 2008 and 2007
Table 23: Home products retailers total change % in UK Christmas sales 2008 and 2007
List of Figures
Figure 1: Quarterly y-o-y change % Q2 2006- Q1 2009f
Figure 2: Value vs volume y-o-y change % Q4 2008
Figure 3: Value y-o-y change % by sector Q4 2008
Figure 4: Sectors exposure to administration January 08-February 09

Abstract

Introduction

Christmas 2008 marked the beginning of a new era for retail. While some retailers in each sector were struggling, others were defying the credit crunch and continuing to grow their sales in a tough environment. This brief, produced in January 2008 as part of our trading updates service is now available to all knowledge centre clients.

Scope
  • The briefing provides an invaluable summary of performance in Q4 2008, with quarterly growth rates for each retail sector.
  • It features like-for-like performance of the major retailers during the important Christmas trading period and highlights new spending patterns.
  • Performance is analysed by sector drawing out key issues and action points both for individual retailers and for all retail participants.
Highlights

Though consumers are noticeably trading down, this is not benefiting all value retailers. The ones that are gaining have a consistent message of quality and value not just price and often appeal to more affluent consumers as well as lower socio-economic groups.

Online pureplays and transactional websites from store-based and catalogue retailers were among the clearest winners in Christmas 2008. Online offers have become more advanced and customers are increasingly comfortable buying over the Internet setting the channel up for another year of strong growth.

Jewellery, wine and chocolate specialists are all suffering from consumers' new, more frugal mentality. This does not mean shoppers are cutting out all treats, particularly in food & drink, but they are thinking more about where and how they buy them. They are also becoming more considered in their purchases of other non-essential products.

Reasons to Purchase
  • Ensure management bases its plans on the specific Q4 insights for each sector.
  • Learn from rivals' successes/avoid the pitfalls of weak operators.
  • Use insight into changing buying and seasonal habits to refine retail strategies.


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