Commercial Insight: Cytotoxic Therapies - Market growth will slow due to increasing genericization

Published by: Datamonitor

Published: Jun. 29, 2009 - 127 Pages

Table of Contents

ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE

About the Oncology pharmaceutical analysis team

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Strategic scoping and focus

Datamonitor insight into the cytotoxic therapies market

Related reports

Upcoming related reports

CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION

Market definition for this report

Cytotoxic therapies by ATC class

L1A - Alkylating agents

L1B - Antimetabolites

L1C - Vinca alkaloids and other plant-derived products

L1D - Antineoplastic antibiotics

L1X2 - Platinum compounds

L1X9 - All other antineoplastics

CHAPTER 3 MARKET OVERVIEW

Seven major markets

Current and future market overview

The cytotoxics therapies market will continue to grow through to 2018 despite several blockbuster products losing patent protection

Patent expiries on the leading cytotoxic brands are set to occur within the next 5 years

The US is due to lose nearly half its share of the seven major markets by 2018 due to generic erosion of key branded products

The antimetabolites are forecast to account for the largest proportion of market share through to 2018

The current leading cytotoxic brands are forecast to lose significant market share by 2018 due to patent expiry

The cytotoxics market will grow from $13.7 billion in 2008 to $18.7 billion in 2018 across the seven major pharmaceutical markets

Opportunities and threats

Opportunities

Threats

US

Current and future market assessment

The large impact that generic erosion has on sales of branded drugs will cause a decrease in the US cytotoxics market

The cytotoxics market will shrink from $6.8 billion in 2008 to $5.6 billion in 2018 in the US

Opportunities and threats

Opportunities

Threats

Japan

Current and future market assessment

The cytotoxics market in Japan is forecast to undergo strong growth due to new product launches and expansion of drugs into new indications

The cytotoxics market will grow from $2.1 billion in 2008 to $3.9 billion in 2018 in Japan

Opportunities and threats

Opportunities

Threats

Five major European markets (5EU)

Current and future market assessment

The cytotoxics therapies market in the five European countries will grow strongly through to 2018 as a result of several key product launches

The cytotoxics market will grow from $4.9 billion in 2008 to $9.2 billion in 2018 in the five major European markets

Opportunities and threats

Opportunities

Threats

France

Current and future market assessment

The cytotoxics market will grow from $1.8 billion in 2008 to $2.8 billion in 2018 in France

Germany

Current and future market assessment

The cytotoxics market will grow from $1.1 billion in 2008 to $2.3 billion in 2018 in Germany

Italy

Current and future market assessment

The cytotoxics market will grow from $0.8 billion in 2008 to $1.7 billion in 2018 in Italy

Spain

Current and future market assessment

The cytotoxics market will grow from $0.6 billion in 2008 to $1.4 billion in 2018 in Spain

UK

Current and future market assessment

The cytotoxics market will grow from $0.6 billion in 2008 to $1.1 billion in 2018 in the UK

Rest of the world snapshot

Current market assessment

Rest of the World sales represent 22% of the global cytotoxics market

Opportunities and threats

Opportunities

Threats

CHAPTER 4 BRAND DYNAMICS

Overview of competitive landscape

Taxotere and Eloxatin will be in the top 3 cytotoxic brands in 2008 and 2018

Drivers of brand choice

Efficacy and toxicity of a drug are the most important drivers of cytotoxic brand choice

Trends in marketing strategies

Marketing strategy for leading brands

Leading cytotoxic brands

Taxotere (docetaxel; Sanofi-Aventis)

Drug profile

Product positioning

SWOT analysis

Brand forecast to 2018

Eloxatin (oxaliplatin; Sanofi-Aventis)

Drug profile

Product positioning

SWOT analysis

Brand forecast to 2018

Gemzar (gemcitabine; Eli Lilly)

Drug profile

Product positioning

SWOT analysis

Brand forecast to 2018

Dacogen (decitabine; Eisai/Johnson & Johnson)

Drug profile

Development overview

Product positioning

SWOT analysis

Brand forecast to 2018

CHAPTER 5 KEY DEVELOPERS

Strategic overview

Trends in corporate strategy

Approval in multiple tumor types is most likely to result in significant sales

A mature and heavily genericized market means that the experience of large pharmaceutical companies is crucial

The current pipeline is relatively small and contains several reformulations of leading cytotoxic brands

Sanofi-Aventis

Corporate strategy

Oncology cytotoxics portfolio assessment

Eli Lilly

Corporate strategy

Oncology cytotoxics portfolio assessment

Portfolio assessment of other leading companies

CHAPTER 6 CASE STUDIES

Introduction

Case study

Supergeneric cytotoxics...not so super?

Approval of Taxol in a variety of solid tumors resulted in blockbuster sales...

...however, sales were quickly eroded when generic paclitaxel was launched

Taxol achieved blockbuster status despite being associated with significant administration and toxicity issues...

...although this spurred on generics manufacturers to develop 'supergeneric' paclitaxel to eliminate toxicities

Abraxane was the first of the 'supergeneric' paclitaxel reformulations to reach the market with many theoretical advantages over Taxol...

...however, in reality, uptake of Abraxane has been modest compared with Taxol's previous dominance of the market

While advantages of a supergeneric cytotoxic are obvious, reality means that only modest sales are likely to be achieved

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Journal papers

Websites

Datamonitor reports

Other

APPENDIX A - MARKET ASSUMPTIONS

New product launches

Patent expiries

Rest of class definition

Data definitions, limitations and assumptions

Standard units

Japanese market data

Rest of the World

Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends

Forecast methodology

Report methodology

APPENDIX B

About Datamonitor

About Datamonitor Healthcare

About the Oncology analysis team

Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Definition of the cytotoxic therapies market, 2009

Table 2: Sales and growth of cytotoxic therapy drug classes in the seven major markets, 2008-2018

Table 3: Key events impacting the cytotoxic therapies market, 2008-2018

Table 4: Cytotoxic therapy sales forecasts in the seven major markets ($m), 2008-2018

Table 5: Summary of opportunities and threats to impact the cytotoxics market across the seven major markets, 2009-2018

Table 6: Sales and growth of cytotoxic therapy drug classes in the US, 2008-2018

Table 7: Top 5 branded cytotoxics in the US in 2008 and 2018

Table 8: Cytotoxic therapy sales forecasts in the US ($m), 2008-2018

Table 9: Summary of opportunities and threats to impact the cytotoxics market in the US, 2009-2018

Table 10: Sales and growth of cytotoxic therapy drug classes in Japan, 2008-2018

Table 11: Top 5 branded cytotoxics in Japan in 2008 and 2018

Table 12: Cytotoxic therapy sales forecasts in Japan ($m), 2008-2018

Table 13: Summary of opportunities and threats to impact the cytotoxics market in Japan, 2009

Table 14: Sales and growth of cytotoxic therapy drug classes in the five major European markets, 2008-2018

Table 15: Top 5 branded cytotoxics in the five major European markets in 2008 and 2018

Table 16: Cytotoxic therapy sales forecasts in the five major European markets ($m), 2008-2018

Table 17: Summary of opportunities and threats to impact the cytotoxics market in the five major European markets, 2009

Table 18: Top 5 branded cytotoxics in France in 2008 and 2018

Table 19: Cytotoxic therapy sales forecasts in France ($m), 2008-2018

Table 20: Top 5 branded cytotoxics in Germany in 2008 and 2018

Table 21: Cytotoxic therapy sales forecasts in Germany ($m), 2008-2018

Table 22: Top 5 branded cytotoxics in Italy in 2008 and 2018

Table 23: Cytotoxic therapy sales forecasts in Italy ($m), 2008-2018

Table 24: Top 5 branded cytotoxics in Spain in 2008 and 2018

Table 25: Cytotoxic therapy sales forecasts in Spain ($m), 2008-2018

Table 26: Top 5 branded cytotoxics in the UK in 2008 and 2018

Table 27: Cytotoxic therapy sales forecasts in the UK ($m), 2008-2018

Table 28: Comparison of cytotoxic drug class sales ($m) in the seven major markets and Rest of the World, 2008

Table 29: Comparison of cytotoxic drug class sales ($m) in the BRIC countries, Australia and Canada, 2008

Table 30: Leading branded cytotoxic drug sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2008-2018

Table 31: Marketing strategies employed by the companies behind the top three cytotoxic brands, 2009

Table 32: Taxotere - drug profile, 2009

Table 33: Impacting factors on the revenues of Taxotere, 2008-2018

Table 34: Eloxatin - drug profile, 2009

Table 35: Impacting factors on the revenues of Eloxatin, 2008-2018

Table 36: Gemzar - drug profile, 2009

Table 37: Impacting factors on the revenues of Gemzar, 2008-2018

Table 38: Dacogen - drug profile, 2009

Table 39: Ongoing Phase III trial investigating Dacogen in acute myeloid leukemia

Table 40: Impacting factors on the revenues of Dacogen, 2008-2018

Table 41: Leading companies in the seven major market cytotoxic therapies market, 2008-2018

Table 42: Late-phase cytotoxics pipeline, 2009

Table 43: Assessment of Sanofi-Aventis's cytotoxics portfolio, 2009

Table 44: Assessment of Eli Lilly's cytotoxics portfolio, 2009

Table 45: Assessment of Pfizer's cytotoxics portfolio, 2009

Table 46: Assessment of Bristol-Myer Squibb's cytotoxics portfolio, 2009

Table 47: Assessment of Roche's cytotoxics portfolio, 2009

Table 48: FDA approvals for Taxol, 1992-99

Table 49: Historical global sales of Taxol ($m), 1994-2008

Table 50: Approved and investigational paclitaxel reformulations, 2009

Table 51: Historical global sales of Abraxane ($m), 2005-08

Table 52: Regional launch dates for new cytotoxics in the seven major markets, 2008-2018

Table 53: Patent expiry dates for the approved cytotoxics in the seven major pharmaceutical markets, 2008-2018

List of Figures

Figure 1: Cytotoxic therapy sales ($m) by country in the seven major markets, 2008-2018

Figure 2: Cytotoxic therapy sales ($m) by drug class in the seven major markets, 2008-2018

Figure 3: Performance of leading cytotoxic therapy brands in the seven major markets, 2008 versus 2018

Figure 4: Seven major market population aged 60 and over, 2000-2050

Figure 5: Global therapy sales ($m), 2007-2012

Figure 6: Cytotoxic therapy sales ($m) in the US, 2008-2018

Figure 7: Cytotoxic therapy sales ($m) in Japan, 2008-2018

Figure 8: Cytotoxic therapy sales ($m) in the five major European markets, 2008-2018

Figure 9: Cytotoxic therapy sales ($m) in France, 2008-2018

Figure 10: Cytotoxic therapy sales ($m) in Germany, 2008-2018

Figure 11: Cytotoxic therapy sales ($m) in Italy, 2008-2018

Figure 12: Cytotoxic therapy sales ($m) in Spain, 2008-2018

Figure 13: Cytotoxic therapy sales ($m) in the UK, 2008-2018

Figure 14: Rest of world versus seven major market sales split in the cytotoxic therapies market ($m), 2008

Figure 15: Drivers of brand choice for cytotoxic therapy in cancer

Figure 16: Taxotere SWOT analysis, 2009

Figure 17: Taxotere forecast sales ($m) by country in the seven major markets, 2008-2018

Figure 18: Eloxatin SWOT analysis, 2009

Figure 19: Eloxatin forecast sales ($m) by country in the seven major markets, 2008-2018

Figure 20: Gemzar SWOT analysis, 2009

Figure 21: Gemzar forecast sales ($m) by country in the seven major markets, 2008-2018

Figure 22: Phase III study of Dacogen versus supportive care in patients with myelodysplastic syndrome

Figure 23: Dacogen SWOT analysis, 2009

Figure 24: Dacogen forecast sales ($m) by country in the seven major markets, 2008-2018

Figure 25: Historical global sales of Taxol ($m), 1994-2008

Abstract

• In-depth analysis of the current and future cytotoxic therapies market across the US, 5EU and Japan, plus a rest of world snapshot
• Cytotoxic therapy sales forecasts for brands and generics from 2008 to 2018
• Assessment of the leading cancer brands and drug classes to identify key success factors within this sector
• Assess the strategies of several leading players in the cytotoxics market

• Quantify the performance of each of the marketed cytotoxic therapy cancer brands in the seven major markets over the period 2008 to 2018
• Acquire a detailed account of cytotoxic therapy cancer brand dynamics and the events that drive and limit their market growth
• Benchmark the cytotoxic therapy cancer brands against their generics and rest of class and align their 7MM performance with a rest of world snapshot

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