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Canada Agribusiness Report Q3 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jun. 29, 2009 - 54 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Canada Agricultural SWOT
Industry Business Environment Overview
Market Overview
Supply Demand Analysis
Canada Sugar Outlook
Table: Canada Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Canada Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Industry Forecast - Canada Dairy Outlook
Table: Canada Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Canada Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Canada Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Canada Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Canada Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Canada Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Industry Forecast - Canada Livestock Outlook
Table: Canada Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Canada Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Canada Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Canada Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Canada Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Canada Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Industry Forecast - Canada Soybean Outlook
Industry Forecast - Canada Soybean Outlook
Table: Canada Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Canada Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade
Industry Forecast - Canada Rice Outlook
Table: Canada Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Canada Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Industry Forecast - Canada Grain Outlook
Table: Canada Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Canada Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Canada Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Canada Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Canada Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Canada Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
Competitive Landscape
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers
Market Strategy - Grains Update
Corn
Table: Corn
Soybean
Table: Soybean
Rice
Table: Rice
Wheat
Table: Wheat
Market Strategy Softs Update
Cocoa
Table: Cocoa
Coffee
Table Coffee
Milk
Table: Milk
Sugar
Table: Sugar
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis
Industry Forecast Scenario - Food
Table: Canada Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Forecast Scenario - Retail
Table: Canada Mass Grocery Retail - Value Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts
Economic Activity
Canada - Economic Activity
Industry Trend Analysis - Loblaw Moves Towards Sustainable Seafood Policy, Trend Creates
Opportunities In Aquaculture
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Abstract

In BMI's new Canada Agribusiness Report for Q3 2009, we begin to look at the outlook for the 2010harvest. Next year we expect production of grain to fall back from the high levels estimated for 2009.

This year a bumper wheat crop in Canada and its southern neighbour the US has put pressure on prices.Prices were already suffering from flagging demand owing to the poor state of the livestock industry inthe two countries and sluggish demand on the export market. In 2010, we expect only a small recovery inprices despite a forecast large fall in production on both sides of the border.

The 2009 wheat crop is estimated to be up 42.87% year-on-year (y-o-y) at 28.61mn tonnes. This was dueto excellent growing conditions causing yields to rise and a 15% increase in the planted area in responseto the high wheat prices at planting time in H108. For the 2010 crop, despite an expected similar areaplanted to wheat, production will fall owing to a drop in yields to more normal levels.

Barley and soybean production also benefited from the good growing conditions in the 2009 crop year.

Barley production grew an estimated 7.3% y-o-y despite a 14% fall in the area planted. Soybeanproduction rose by 23.8% y-o-y to an estimated 3.34mn tonnes. Exports of soybeans rose by a far smalleramount, however, owing to low beginning stocks. As with wheat, we expect production in 2010 to fallback again as yields drop.

In the coming years, we expect to see demand for grain and oilseeds in Canada to be boosted by biofuelproduction. Production capacity for both ethanol and biodiesel has been rising rapidly over the past fewyears. Increases in capacity have been slowed this year by tight credit conditions and the fall in the priceof oil. Towards the end of our forecast period in 2013, however, we expect biodiesel to become a moresignificant driver of growth in demand for crops.

As in the US, Canada's livestock and dairy sectors are still struggling. We expect production of poultry,pork and beef to fall. We also forecast a fall in production of dairy products. Canada's hog sector hadalready been struggling before the rocketing feed costs of 2008 and the fall in demand this year. Theoutbreak of H1N1 'swine flu' has been a further blow to the sector at a time when it looked like hog pricescould begin to rise again owing to lower supply. Hog inventories continued to fall through the first half of2009 as more operators left the business. We do not see the situation improving through the second halfof the year. Assuming growth returns to the economies of Canada and the US next year, rising demandand lower supply could see prices rise again and profitability return to the sector. It will take time,however, for herds to be built back up and we see production falling for some years to come.

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