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Malaysia Agribusiness Report Q3 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jun. 29, 2009 - 63 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Malaysia Agricultural SWOT
Malaysia Political SWOT
Malaysia Economic SWOT
Malaysia Business Environment SWOT
Malaysia Business Environment SWOT
Industry Business Environment Overview
Market Overview
Supply Demand Analysis
Industry Forecast - Malaysia Dairy Outlook
Malaysia Milk Production & Consumption
Malaysia Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Malaysia Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Malaysia Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
Malaysia Milk Production, Consumption & Trade
Malaysia Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Malaysia Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Malaysia Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
Industry Forecast - Malaysia Rice Outlook
Malaysia Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Malaysia Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Industry Forecast - Malaysia Sugar Outlook
Malaysia Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Malaysia Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Industry Forecast - Malaysia Grain Outlook
Malaysia Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Malaysia Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Industry Forecast - Malaysia Cocoa Outlook
Malaysia Cocoa Production, Consumption & Trade
Malaysia Cocoa Production & Consumption
Industry Forecast - Malaysia Livestock Outlook
Malaysia Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Malaysia Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Malaysia Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Malaysia Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Malaysia Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Malaysia Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Competitive Landscape
Agribusiness Producers & Traders
Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
Agribusiness Suppliers
Agribusiness Suppliers
Integrated Agribusiness Producers
Integrated Agricultural Producers
Market Strategy - Monthly Softs Update
Cocoa
Cocoa
Coffee
Coffee
Milk
Milk
Sugar
Sugar
Market Strategy - Monthly Grains Update
Corn
Corn
Rice
Rice
Soybean
Soybean
Wheat
Wheat
Economic Activity
Malaysia - Economic Activity
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis
Industry Forecast Scenario - Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Confectionery
Table: Value/Volume Sales of Confectionery Subsector (US$mn, unless otherwise stated) -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Trade
Table: Malaysia Food & Drink Trade Indicators (US$mn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Forecast Scenario - Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Malaysia Mass Grocery Retail Sales Value (US$bn) by Format -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format (%) -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Company Finance Alert
Fonterra Restructuring As Woes Continue
Industry Trend Analysis -
Global Palm Oil Outlook
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Abstract

While the agricultural sector will not be as hard hit as other sectors, such as manufacturing, in the currentdownturn, falling demand for some of Malaysia's key agricultural exports like rubber and palm oil willsee the value of the sector fall.

As Malaysia's economy contracts this year and jobs are lost in the cities, the agricultural sector will see aninflux of new workers this year as laid-off employees return to their villages. The agriculture ministry haslaunched a programme offering low-interest loans to new entrants into the sector to begin small-scaleproduction.

Despite the myriad distractions posed by the economic downturn and political difficulties currently beingfaced by the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO)-led coalition, support for the agriculturalsector will remain strong under the new Prime Minister Najib Razak.

Government interest in improving productivity in the sector was boosted by the 'food crisis' of 2008 as thecost of Malaysia's key food imports of rice and corn soared. The crisis also moved the focus more ontofood production and away from Malaysia's stronger sectors of rubber and palm oil.

While the food self-sufficiency worries of last year could easily be overshadowed by the current woes ofthe important export sector, the government's need to sure up its support should see interest in the sectorcontinue. The UNMO's Barisan Nasional (National Front) coalition is seeing the toughest challenge yet toits monopoly on power and Prime Minister Najib knows that he needs to keep his base among ethnicMalays on side.

It seems likely that more funding will be given to agriculture this year following the allocation of an extraMYR5.6bn to improving food security in February by the previous prime minister Datuk Seri AbdullahAhmad Badawi. The 10th Malaysia Plan, beginning in 2011, will also provide more funds to agriculture.

Though food security has been the main issue for the agriculture ministry of late, the MalaysianInternational Cocoa Fair held in May brought focus onto Malaysia's cocoa sector. Malaysian cocoa beanproduction has plummeted over the past couple of decades, falling from almost 250,000 tonnes at the startof the 1990s to under 30,000 tonnes last year. This has been driven mainly by producers, particularlylarge estates, switching to oil palms which are hardier and have offered better returns.

While primary production has been plummeting, Malaysia's cocoa grinders have been growing fromstrength to strength and in 2008 the country imported 523,926 tonnes of cocoa beans. The imbalancebetween Malaysia's valuable grinding industry and its increasingly insignificant domestic cocoa beanproduction is causing worries within the industry. Indonesia, Malaysia's chief supplier of cocoa beans,was last year hit by a devastating disease outbreak, increasing concern about security of the importsneeded to fuel Malaysia's cocoa processing.

While the grindings sector will suffer in 2009 as the worldwide recession causes demand for chocolate tofall, we expect cocoa bean production to begin to see a turnaround. There is little chance of the largecocoa estates being re-established, but the government, through the Malaysian Cocoa Board (MCB), hasbeen encouraging smallholders to move into cocoa growing. Subsidies are on offer for new or rejuvenatedcocoa plantations and the MCB has been implementing programmes to improve productivity throughtraining and the distribution of high-yielding plants.

While any recovery will undoubtedly be slow, and production is unlikely to see again the heights of 20years ago, it looks like Malaysian cocoa production will be saved from dwindling down to nothing.

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