Japan Agribusiness Report Q3 2009 : Market Research Report

Japan Agribusiness Report Q3 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jun. 29, 2009 - 60 Pages

Executive Summary: SWOT Analysis; Japan Agricultural SWOT; Industry Business Environment Overview; Market Overview; Supply Demand Analysis; Japan Rice Outlook
Table: Japan Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Japan Rice Production, Consumption & Trade: Industry Forecast - Japan Sugar Outlook; Industry Forecast - Japan Sugar Outlook
Table: Japan Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Japan Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade: Industry Forecast - Japan Grains Outlook; Industry Forecast - Japan Grains Outlook
Table: Japan Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Japan Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Japan Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Japan Sorghum Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Japan Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Japan Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Japan Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Japan Sorghum Production, Consumption & Trade: Industry Forecast - Japan Dairy Outlook; Industry Forecast - Japan Dairy Outlook
Table: Japan Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Japan Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Japan Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Japan Milk Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Japan Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Japan Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade: Industry Forecast - Japan Livestock Outlook; Industry Forecast - Japan Livestock Outlook
Table: Japan Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Japan Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Japan Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Japan Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Japan Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Japan Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade: Industry Forecast - Japan Soybean Outlook
Table: Japan Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Japan Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade: Competitive Landscape
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers: Market Strategy - Grains Update; Corn
Table: Corn: Soybean
Table: Soybean: Rice
Table: Rice: Wheat
Table: Wheat: Market Strategy Softs Update; Cocoa
Table: Cocoa: Coffee
Table Coffee: Milk
Table: Milk: Sugar
Table: Sugar: Downstream Supply Chain Analysis; Industry Forecast Scenario - Food; Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts: Confectionery
Table: Value/Volume Sales of Selected Food Subsectors (US$mn, unless otherwise stated) -- Historical Data & Forecasts: Canned Food
Table: Value/Volume Sales of Selected Food Subsectors (US$mn, unless otherwise stated) -- Historical Data & Forecasts: Trade
Table: Japan Food & Drink Trade Indicators (US$mn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts: Industry Forecast Scenario - Retail
Table: Japan Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales by Format (US$bn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format (%) -- Historical Data & Forecasts: Economic Activity; Monetary Policy; Japan - Macroeconomic Forecasts; Special Feature - Japan Hopes For Resurgent Beef Exports; BMI Forecast Modelling; How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Abstract

In BMI's Japan Agribusiness Report for Q3 2009, we introduce the new Soybean Outlook. Soybeans arean important part of the traditional Japanese diet and have been cultivated in the country for centuries.

Now, however, as with most foodstuffs, Japan is reliant on imports to meet demand.

Japan's soybean production in 2008 of 225,000 tonnes was sufficient to meet only around 5% of demand.The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is hoping to decrease this overwhelmingreliance on imports by encouraging the production of more soybeans at home. In 2007, the ministry set atarget of raising annual production to half a million tonnes by 2017. This would be enough to meet aroundhalf of Japan's demand for soybeans for direct food consumption. The country would still be totallyreliant on imports for crushing to produce oil and meal.

The problem with domestic soybean production, as with much of Japanese agriculture, is that in itscurrent form, it is not profitable. Costs are high and farms are small, restricting economies of scale. Evenin Hokkaido, where the country's largest soybean farms are, the average farm size is a mere 1-2 hectares(ha). Unless there is a major shake up in production techniques with the development of large-scale,commercial farms, the government will have to continue pouring funds into subsidies if it is to have anyhope of production reaching its modest target.

With the rapid rise in world food prices in 2007 and 2008 followed by the fierce recession in Japan,farming has been pushed up the agenda, both for policymakers and the public. Job losses in the cities anddisillusionment with the uncertainties of life in a modern, market economy has spurred a revival ofinterest in farming among the young.

The majority of farmers in Japan are now well into old age, with almost 50% aged over 70 and a further20% aged between 60 and 70. This is a serious risk to the future health of the sector, at least in its currentform. The government is hoping that rising unemployment in the cities will see more young peoplechoosing the farm life. Funds have been allocated to retraining unemployed workers in agricultural skills.

In the local press, stories have begun to appear following the fortunes of young urbanites who have givenup the comforts of city living and moved into the farming sector. With Japan's economy forecast by BMIto contract 6.1% this year, it is understandable that interest in the perceived security of farming wouldrise.

While an influx of new blood can only be good news for the sector, what agriculture in Japan really needsis a whole new system of large efficient farms if it is to ever wean itself off government hand outs andbecome competitive internationally. Whether interest in farming will last beyond the economic slowdownalso remains to seen.

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Japan Agribusiness Report Q3 2009

Table of Contents

Abstract