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Malaysia Retail Report Q3 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Jun. 15, 2009 - 39 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe Q309 BMI Malaysia Retail report predicts that total retail sales will grow from an estimated US$25bn in 2008 to more than US$46bn by 2013. A low unemployment rate, rising disposable income and a strong tourism industry are key factors behind the forecast growth.Malaysia’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) was US$207bn in 2008. Average annual GDP growth of 3.2% is predicted by BMI to 2013. With the population increasing by 8.1% over the period, GDP per capita is predicted to rise from US$7,657 in 2008 to US$10,875 by 2013. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$1,723 in 2008 to US$3,140 by the period-end Malaysia is classified as an upper-middle-income country by the World Bank, with the proportion of middle-income households estimated at more than 50% in 2007. According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM), on average, in 2004-05, urban households spent 1.8 times more than rural households. Average consumer spending was MYR2,285 (US$632) per month in urban areas and MYR1,301 per month in rural areas. With the urban population predicted to account for almost 76% of the total by 2015, according to United Nations (UN) data, this is likely to have a positive effect on retail sales. Aided by the Visit Malaysia Year 2007 campaign - which marked the 50th anniversary of Malaysia’s independence - the country recorded 20.9mn visitors in 2007, according to data published by Ministry of Tourism Malaysia (MTM). Tourism receipts were MYR46.07bn (US$13.82bn). Tourist arrivals increased further in 2008, by 5.5% to 22.05mn, surpassing the 21.5mn target set by the government under the Ninth Malaysia Plan for 2006-2010. Shopping is the second-highest contributor to the country’s tourism receipts, and shopping revenue is expected to have increased by 30% to MYR16bn (US$4.6bn) in 2008. Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2008 were an estimated US$2,044bn. China and India alone in 2008 accounted for almost 93% of regional retail sales, with their combined share expected to reach 94% by 2013. Growth in regional retail sales for the period 2008 to 2013 is put by BMI at 105%, or an annual average 17.6%. China should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by Indonesia and India. For Malaysia, the estimated 2008 market share of 1.2% is expected to decrease to 1.1% by 2013. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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