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Hong Kong Retail Report Q3 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Jun. 15, 2009 - 41 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe Q309 BMI Hong Kong Retail report predicts that total retail sales for the Chinese special administrative region (SAR) will grow from just over US$34bn in 2008 to nearly US$49bn by 2013. A low unemployment rate, rising disposable income and a strong tourism industry are key factors behind the forecast growth.Hong Kong’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) was US$223bn in 2008. Average annual GDP growth of 2.5% is predicted by BMI to 2013. With the population increasing by only 4.3% over the period, GDP per capita is predicted to rise from US$31,872 (the second-highest in Asia) in 2008 to US$37,242 by 2013. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$18,728 in 2008 to US$25,500 by the period-end. According to Invest Hong Kong, the SAR welcomed more than 28mn tourists in 2007, including over 15mn from mainland China - a rise of 13.9% from 2006. The further liberalisation measures facilitating visits by residents from mainland China announced in December 2008 are likely to boost these figures further. Total expenditure by tourists amounted to more than HKD140bn (US$18bn) in 2007. The average per capita spending of overnight visitors grew by nearly 6.7% to HKD5,122 (US$661), with retail taking the lion’s share. Census & Statistics Department (CSD) retail sales by outlets figures suggest that the two leading retail sub-sectors in Hong Kong are jewellery, watches, etc, with estimated sales of US$4.8bn in 2007; and clothing and footwear, with estimated sales of US$4.3bn. BMI forecasts that sales of jewellery and watches could grow by almost 58% to US$7.6bn by 2013, reflecting the high disposable income of Hong Kong consumers; and that sales of clothing and footwear should also increase substantially, to US$6.4bn by the end of the forecast period - a rise of 48%. Consumer electronic sales through dedicated outlets are estimated at US$2.4bn for 2007, and are forecast to rise to US$3.8bn by 2013; while sales of furniture and furnishings are predicted to increase from an estimated US$0.7bn in 2007 to US$1.1bn over the period - a rise of nearly 54% for each retail sub-sector. BMI predicts that over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales in Hong Kong will grow by more than 64%, to US$0.34bn, over the forecast period, albeit from a low base of US$0.21bn; while automotive sales will rise by a more modest 18%, from US$1.3bn in 2007 to US$1.6bn in 2013. Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2008 were an estimated US$2,044bn. China and India alone in 2008 accounted for almost 93% of regional retail sales, with their combined share expected to reach 94% by 2013. Growth in regional retail sales for the period 2008 to 2013 is put by BMI at 105%, or an annual average 17.6%. China should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by Indonesia and India. For Hong Kong, the estimated 2008 market share of 1.7% is expected to ease to 1.2% by 2013. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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