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Venezuela Retail Report Q2 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: May. 21, 2009 - 43 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Venezuela Retail Business Environment SWOT
Venezuela Political SWOT
Venezuela Economic SWOT
Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2006-2013
Organised Retail
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Venezuela - Economic Activity, 2006 - 2013
Regional Retail Outlook
Table: Regional Retail Trends, 2006-2013
Table: Regional Retail Sales By % Share, 2006-2013
Regional Retail Trends
Mass Grocery Retail
Venezuela Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Table: Structure Of Venezuela's Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Numbers Of Outlets, 2001-2007
Table: Structure Of Venezuela's Mass Grocery Retail Market, Sales Value By Format, 2001-2007 (US$bn)
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format, 2005-2013 (US$bn)
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, 2007 And 2017 (%)
Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
Venezuela Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2006-2013 (US$mn)
Automotives
Market Overview
Table: Venezuela’s Autos Production, 2007-2008
Table: Venezuela Car Sales, 2006-2008
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Venezuela’s Autos Production And Sales, 2005-2013
Table: Venezuela’s Autos Sales By Vehicle Type, 2006-2013
Table: Venezuela’s Autos Production By Vehicle Type, 2006-2013
Autos Trade
Table: Venezuela’s Autos Trade, 2005-2012
Economic Contribution
Table: Venezuela Autos Sector - Economic Contribution, 2004-2011
Country Snapshot: Venezuela Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
BMI Retail Forecasting And Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing

Abstract

The new BMI Venezuela Retail report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from around US$55bn in 2007 to more than US$118bn by 2013. Generally positive trends in underlying economic growth, an expanding population, the rise in disposable income and easier access to consumer credit are key factors behind the forecast growth in Venezuela’s retail sales.

Venezuela’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) was US$228.3bn in 2007. Average annual GDP growth of 2.1% is predicted by BMI to 2013. With the population increasing from 27.8mn in 2007 to an estimated 31.0mn by 2013, GDP per capita is forecast to rise 41% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$11,548. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$5,055 in 2007 to US$10,900 by 2013.

Positive economic indicators include increasing urbanisation, with more than 88% of the population classified by the UN as urban in 2005. By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have exceeded 95%.

In 2005, 63.8% of the Venezuelan population was described by the United Nations (UN) as active, with 37.7% in the critical 20-44 age range. By 2015, the proportion in the 20-44 age band is predicted to be 38.6%. At this point, 65.5% of the population is expected to be active.

BMI forecasts that organised retail sales will grow at almost twice the rate of underlying retail sales over the period, with the organised retail sector likely to be worth US$71.3bn by 2013. This would take its share of the total retail market to 60.3%.

Retail sales for our universe of Latin American countries in 2007 amounted to an estimated US$1.01trn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI’s macroeconomic database, amounts to US$2.56trn. Argentina, Brazil and Mexico together in 2007 accounted for an estimated 79.0% of regional retail sales, with their combined share expected to slip below 77.0% by 2013. For Venezuela, the estimated 2007 market share of 5.4% is expected to rise slightly to 5.6% by 2013.

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