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South Africa Retail Report Q2 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: May. 14, 2009 - 52 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThis new BMI South Africa Retail report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from around US$60bn in 2007 to US$96bn by 2013. Key factors behind this will be underlying economic growth, rising disposable income, falling unemployment, increasing urbanisation, and the emergence of a black middle class.South Africa’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) was US$282.3bn in 2007. Average annual GDP growth of 3.3% is predicted by BMI until 2013. With the population increasing from 47.9mn in 2007 to an estimated 51.2mn by 2013, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by nearly 43% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$8,419. We believe that consumer spending per capita will increase from US$3,929 in 2007 to US$6,400 by 2013. Consumer spending is boosted by foreign visitors to South Africa. In 2007, according to Statistics South Africa (SSA), there were 9.2mn tourist arrivals - a 7.6% increase over the previous year. The FIFA World Cup tournament in 2010 is set to attract even greater numbers of visitors. In 2005, 64.1% of the South African population was described by the United Nations (UN) as economically active, with 37.7% in the critical (for retail sales) 20-44 age range. By 2015, 64.3% of the population is expected to be active, while the proportion of those in the 20-44 age band is forecasted to reach 38%. Growing urbanisation is also contributing to a vibrant retail sector, with a 26% increase in the number of urban households between 1994 and 2005. In 2005, just under 58% of the population was classified by the UN as urban, and this is forecasted to increase to more than 64% by 2015. According to data from SSA, sales of textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods amounted to US$11.6bn in 2008, or 18.9% of the total retail market. Home décor sales were US$4.3bn or 7% market share, while furniture and appliance sales totalled US$3.9bn, or 6.3%. Cosmetics and toiletries accounted for US$2.6bn of sales, giving them 4.3%. Assuming these market shares stay as they are, BMI forecasts textile sales of US$18.1bn by 2013, with home decor worth US$6.7bn, furniture and appliances taking US$6bn, and cosmetics and toiletries accounting for US$4.1bn. Retail sales for our universe of MEA countries in 2007 amounted to an estimated US$344bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI’s macroeconomic database, amounts to US$467bn. In 2007, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) accounted for an estimated 61.1% of regional retail sales, and their combined share is expected to remain around this level to 2013. For South Africa, the estimated 2007 market share of 17.5% is expected to ease to 16.1% by 2013. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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