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Slovenia Retail Report Q2 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Jun. 12, 2009 - 37 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe new BMI Slovenia Retail report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from around US$15.4bn in 2007 to US$21.4bn by 2013. Rising levels of disposable income and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in Slovenian retail sales.Slovenia’s nominal GDP was US$47.6bn in 2007. Average annual GDP growth of 2.7% is predicted by BMI to 2013. With the population increasing from 2.05mn in 2007 to an estimated 2.08mn by 2013, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by less than 20% over the forecast period, reaching US$27,995. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$4,484 in 2007 to US$6,100 by 2013. The size of the urban population in Slovenia is unusually small, which reflects in part the absence of large cities resulting from the mountainous terrain. Even in the capital city Ljubljana, there are fewer than 300,000 residents. The average age in the country is also high relative to other European countries, currently at around 41. Both of these factors work against retailers. Unemployment, estimated at 7.3% in 2007, looks set to edge higher over the medium term, before trending lower by the end of the forecast period (to 6.8% in 2013). In 2005, almost 71% of the Slovenian population was described by the United Nations (UN) as active, but with just 36.7% in the critical 20-44 age range. Just over half of the population was classified by the UN as urban (50.8%). By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have fallen to 47.4%, with only 32.6% in the 20-44 age band. At this point, 68.4% of the population is expected to be active. According to 2007 data from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia (SURS), there was a 9.9% rise in retail sales over the previous year, with non-food value up 12.7% year-on-year (y-o-y), while food, beverages and tobacco gained 8.6% over the 2006 level. Retail sales for BMI’s universe of CEE countries in 2007 amounted to an estimated US$1,021bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI’s macroeconomic database, amounts to US$1.48trn. Russia, Turkey and Poland together in 2007 accounted for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales, with their combined share expected to reach almost 83% by 2013. For Slovenia, the estimated 2007 market share of 1.5% is expected to fall to 1.2% by 2013. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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