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Serbia Retail Report Q2 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: May. 14, 2009 - 42 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe new BMI Serbia Retail report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from around US$16.5bn in 2007 to US$37.5bn by 2013. Underlying economic growth, rising levels of disposable income, falling unemployment and the development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in Serbian retail sales.Serbia’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) was US$40.8bn in 2007. Average annual GDP growth of 3.3% is predicted by BMI to 2013. With the population stagnating at approximately 7.4mn, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by 76% over the forecast period, reaching US$7,233. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$4,355 in 2007 to more than US$13,000 by 2013. Serbia is one of the poorest markets in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), plagued by political uncertainty and high unemployment that deters foreign investment. Low levels of disposable income, the prevalence of corruption and the poor state of infrastructure make this a challenging market. However, the medium- to long-term potential is significant, particularly if Serbia can achieve EU accession within the next several years. In 2005, almost 67% of the Slovenian population was described by the UN as active, and with just under 51% in the critical 20-44 age range. Just over half of the population was classified by the UN as urban (52.3%). By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have risen to 53.8%, although with a lower 47.8% in the 20-44 age band. At this point, 66.8% of the population is expected to be active. The Serbian retail sector is still underserved and fragmented compared with more mature markets, with only 25 square metres (sq m) per 1,000 inhabitants compared with the EU average of 270 sq m. Retail sales for BMI’s universe of CEE countries in 2007 amounted to an estimated US$1.02bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI’s macroeconomic database, amounts to US$1.48bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland together in 2007 accounted for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales, with their combined share expected to reach almost 83% by 2013. For Serbia, the estimated 2007 market share of 1.6% is expected to rise to 2.1% by 2013. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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