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Philippines Retail Report Q2 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: May. 21, 2009 - 39 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe new BMI Philippines Retail report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from less than US$24bn in 2007 to more than US$35bn by 2013. Strong underlying economic growth, an expanding population (especially in urban areas), the rise in consumer spending and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in the Philippines’ retail sales. The Philippines’ nominal gross domestic product (GDP) was US$145.2bn in 2007. Average annual GDP growth of 4.8% is predicted by BMI to 2013. With the population increasing from 88mn in 2007 to an estimated 97.9mn by 2013, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by almost 35% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$2,226. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$1,287 in 2007 to US$2,200 by 2013. Although salaries in the Philippines remain low - BMI estimates the 2007 average annual wage at US$5,864 - household incomes are substantially bolstered by contributions from family members working overseas. Overseas remittances were reported to be more than US$11bn in 2005; and, with the bulk going into consumption rather than investments, the retail industry is one of the beneficiaries. In urban areas in particular, there are also increasing numbers of dual-income, middle-class families and young professionals who are boosting retail sales. The country’s growing youth population represents a key element of future retail spending. According to UN data, in 2005 some 36.7% of the Philippine population was in the 20-44 years age range. This is forecast to increase to nearly 39% by 2015. The proportion of the population classified by the UN as ‘active’ was 60.9% in 2005, and should rise to almost 63% by 2015. The urban population, which accounted for 62.6% of the total in 2005, is predicted to reach nearly 70% by 2015. Currently 50% of the country’s total retail sales are concentrated in Metro Manila, the metropolitan area that contains the city of Manila, as well as 16 surrounding cities and municipalities. Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2007 amounted to an estimated US$1.22bn. China and India alone in 2007 accounted for an estimated 92% of regional retail sales, with their combined share expected to reach almost 95% by 2013. Growth in regional retail sales for the period 2007 to 2013 is put by BMI at 181%, or an average 19.3% per annum. China should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by India and Indonesia. For the Philippines, the estimated 2007 market share of 1.4% is expected to fall to 0.8% by 2013.Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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