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Peru Retail Report Q2 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: May. 21, 2009 - 39 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe new BMI Peru Retail report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from around US$25bn in 2007 to US$73bn by 2013. Generally positive trends in underlying economic growth, an expanding population, a steady increase in real wages and falling unemployment are key factors behind the forecast growth in Peru’s retail sales.Peru’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) was US$109.1bn in 2007. Average annual GDP growth of 5.6% is predicted by BMI to 2013. With the population increasing from 28.8mn in 2007 to an estimated 31.6mn by 2013, GDP per capita is forecast to rise 85% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$6,990. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$2,525 in 2007 to US$4,250 by 2013. In 2005, 64.0% of the Peruvian population was described by the United Nations (UN) as active, with 39.4% in the critical 20-44 age range. Three-quarters (74.6%) of the population was classified by the UN as urban. By 2010, the urban population is forecast to have reached 76.4%, with 40.0% in the 20-44 age band. At this point, 66.2% of the population is expected to be active. Easier access to consumer credit has boosted retail sales in Peru. The number of credit cards in circulation in the country rose from 210,000 in 1996 to 3mn in 2006; while, in Lima, 15.5% of the population had a credit card in 2006. BMI has calculated that organised retail accounted for an estimated US$1.5bn of overall sales in 2007, rising to a forecast US$7.0bn by 2013. This represents an annual average growth rate of 27.9%, compared with the predicted 21.6% (in dollar terms) annual growth rate for overall retail sales. Retail sales for our universe of Latin American countries in 2007 amounted to an estimated US$1.01trn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI’s macroeconomic database, amounts to US$2.56trn. Argentina, Brazil and Mexico together in 2007 accounted for an estimated 79.0% of regional retail sales, with their combined share expected to slip below 77.0% by 2013. For Peru, the estimated 2007 market share of 2.5% is expected to rise to 3.5% by 2013. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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