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Mexico Retail Report Q2 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: May. 21, 2009 - 48 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Mexico Retail Business Environment SWOT
Mexico Political SWOT
Mexico Economic SWOT
Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2006-2013
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Mexico - Economic Activity, 2006 - 2013
Regional Retail Outlook
Table: Regional Retail Trends, 2006-2013
Table: Regional Retail Sales By % Share, 2006-2013
Regional Retail Trends
Mass Grocery Retail
Mexico Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Table: Structure Of Mexico's Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Numbers Of Outlets, 2001-2007
Table: Structure Of Mexico's Mass Grocery Retail Market, Sales Value By Format, 2001-2007 (US$bn)
Table: Average Annual Sales Value By Format, 2007 (US$mn)
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Mass Grocery Retail, Value Sales By Format, 2005-2013 (US$bn)
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, 2007 And 2017 (%)
Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
Mexico Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2006-2013 (US$mn)
Automotives
Mexico Auto Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Table: Mexico’s Vehicle Production, 2007 And 2008
Table: Mexico’s Vehicle Sales To Dealerships, 2007 And 2008
Autos Production And Sales Forecasts
Table: Mexico Autos Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts
Table: Mexico’s Auto Sales By Segment, 2006-2013 (CBUs)
Table: Mexico’s Auto Production By Segment, 2006-2013 (CBUs)
Autos Trade Forecasts
Table: Mexico’s Autos Trade, 2004-2012 (US$bn unless otherwise stated)
Economic Contribution
Table: Economic Contribution Of Mexico’s Autos Sector, 2004-2011
Country Snapshot: Mexico Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Retail Forecasting And Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing

Abstract

The new BMI Mexico Retail report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from around US$331bn in 2007 to US$806bn by 2013. Increasing affluence, a growing population - including a large number of young people - and the continuing development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in Mexico’s retail sales.

Mexico’s nominal GDP was US$1.08trn in 2007. Average annual GDP growth of 2.7% is predicted by BMI to 2013. With the population increasing from 105.8mn in 2007 to an estimated 110.8mn by 2013, GDP per capita is forecast to rise 41.3% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$14,449. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$8,122 in 2007 to US$12,000 by 2013.

With an estimated 107mn people in 2008, Mexico is the world’s 11th largest country in terms of population. Almost 55% of Mexicans are 24 years old or younger, one of the highest percentages for an upper-middle-income economy anywhere in the world.

The proportion of those in the 20-44 age range, critical for retail sales, is also high - at 41.0% - and is forecast to rise to 44.9% by 2010, according to United Nations (UN) data. In 2005, 63.6% of Mexicans were described by the UN as active, and this is forecast to reach 66.3% by 2013.

Over the same period, the trend towards urbanisation is predicted to continue, with the proportion of those living in towns and cities in 2005 estimated at 76% by the UN and forecast to reach 77.4% by 2010. Consumer credit is growing at double-digit rates in Mexico. In 2006, banks approved 8.7mn new credit cards, awarding 40% of the new accounts to customers with no previous credit history. Credit card consumer spending reached about US$37bn in 2006.

Retail sales for our universe of Latin American countries in 2007 amounted to an estimated US$1.01trn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI’s macroeconomic database, amounts to US$2.56trn. Argentina, Brazil and Mexico together in 2007 accounted for an estimated 79.0% of regional retail sales, with their combined share expected to slip below 77.0% by 2013. For Mexico, the estimated 2007 market share of 32.7% is expected to rise to 38.4% by 2013.

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