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Indonesia Retail Report Q2 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: May. 14, 2009 - 42 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe new BMI Indonesia Retail report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from less than US$35bn in 2007 to almost US$77bn by 2013. Strong underlying economic growth, an enormous and expanding population (the world’s-fourth largest after China, India and the United States), the rise in per capita incomes and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast substantial growth in Indonesia’s retail sales. Indonesia’s nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was US$433.2bn in 2007. Average annual GDP growth of 5.6% is predicted by BMI to 2013. With the population increasing from 231.6mn in 2007 to an estimated 247.8mn by 2013, GDP per capita is forecast to more than double by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$4,523. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$961.2 in 2007 to US$2,000 by 2013.Employees in the formal sector have seen their salaries rise by 20% since 1999, according to the Indonesian government, with the average wage now standing at IDR2,412,000 (US$219) per month. These higher-income earners currently make up around 30% of the total workforce. The growth in the overall retail market will be driven, in large part, by the expansion of the organised retail market. BMI predicts that sales through these more modern and sophisticated outlets - which in 2007 accounted for an estimated 18.1% of the market - will rise from approximately US$6.2bn to US$16.0bn by 2013. This 157% increase (approximately 17% per annum) could see organised retail sales take almost 20% of the overall market by 2013. The mass grocery retail (MGR) sector, which is still developing in Indonesia, will see substantial growth, with BMI forecasting sales to more than double to US$9.4bn in 2013. Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2007 amounted to an estimated US$1.22bn. China and India alone in 2007 accounted for an estimated 92% of regional retail sales, with their combined share expected to reach almost 95% by 2013. Growth in regional retail sales for the period 2007 to 2013 is put by BMI at 181%, or an average 19.3% per annum. China should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by India and Indonesia. For Indonesia, its estimated 2007 market share of 2.1% is expected to fall to 1.8% by 2013. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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