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Hungary Retail Report Q2 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: May. 14, 2009 - 53 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe new BMI Hungary Retail report predicts that the country’s total retail sales will increase almost 35% by 2013, growing from US$34.0bn in 2007 to US$46.1bn by 2013. Increased economic prosperity (despite the current financial crisis), easier access to credit, and the demand for premium products are key factors behind retail market expansion, contributing to forecast annual retail sales growth of 7.2%. Hungary’s nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was US$140bn in 2007. Average annual GDP growth of 1.2% is predicted by BMI to 2013. Although the population is forecast to decrease slightly, from 10.0mn in 2007 to an estimated 9.9mn by 2013, GDP per capita is predicted to rise more than 25% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$17,468. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$8,539 in 2007 to US$11,000 by 2013. The demand for premium products and convenience are the driving factors behind value growth across the Hungarian retail industry, with consumers increasingly viewing their purchases as status symbols.Yet, local consumption patterns vary significantly according to income, with the average wage of US$18,624 being much lower than professional salaries. The government’s austerity programme, which has reduced consumer expenditure, also means that many consumers are extremely price-conscious. However, Hungary’s median population age has been rising steadily, with the proportion of those aged between 20 and 44 - a key sector for retail sales - forecast to rise from 35.3% of the total population in 2005 to 35.6% in 2010 and to 36.1% by 2015. Retail sub-sectors that are likely to see steady growth over the forecast period include furniture & household goods, worth US$7bn in 2007, according to data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH). BMI forecasts sales in this sector rising to US$9.5bn by 2013. Sales of books and newspapers amounted to US$3.8bn in 2007, and should increase to US$5.1bn by the end of the forecast period; while sales of textiles, clothing & footwear, estimated at US$2.2bn, are predicted to grow to US$3.0bn by 2013. Property experts forecast that around 450,000 square metres of shopping centre space will be added to the Hungarian market between 2009 and 2012. Retail sales for the BMI universe of CEE countries in 2007 amounted to an estimated US$1,021bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI’s macroeconomic database, amounts to US$1,481bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland together in 2007 accounted for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales, with their combined share expected to reach almost 83% by 2013. For Hungary, the estimated 2007 market share of 3.3% is expected to fall to 2.6% by 2013. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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