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Czech Republic Retail Report Q2 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: May. 8, 2009 - 50 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe new BMI Czech Republic Retail report predicts that the country’s retail sales will almost double during the forecast period, from an estimated US$49.83bn in 2007 to more than US$90bn by 2013. The rise in disposable incomes, easier access to credit, plus the increasing number of large retail outlets and shopping centres and growing car ownership are key factors behind retail market expansion. EU membership (gained in 2004) and substantial foreign direct investment (FDI) continue to spur growth, contributing to forecast annual retail sales growth of 13%.The Czech Republic’s nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was US$197.21bn in 2007. Average annual GDP growth of 3.0% is predicted by BMI to 2013. With the population forecast to increase from 10.3mn in 2007 to an estimated 10.4mn by 2013, GDP per capita is predicted to rise by more than 41% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$27,045. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$8,599 in 2007 to US$15,500 by 2013. Food expenditure as a percentage of GDP in the Czech Republic is expected to decline gradually from an estimated 5.3% in 2008 to a projected 4.8% in 2013. This reflects the broader expansion of the economy and ability of consumers to purchase a wider range of consumer goods. For example, BMI data suggest that OTC pharmaceutical sales will grow by more than 67% from an estimated US$0.67bn in 2007 to US$1.12bn by 2013. Other retail sectors that are likely to see substantial growth over the forecast period include furnishings and fashion. Based on the Czech Statistical Office (CSU)’s ‘Money income and expenditures per average household’ data, BMI estimates that retail sales of furnishings amounted to US$4.90bn in 2007 and should increase to US$8.93bn by 2013, while sales of clothing and footwear are forecast to rise from an estimated US$3.19bn in 2007 to US$5.81bn by the end of the period. According to United Nations (UN) data, in 2005 just under 37% of the Czech population was in the 20-44 years age range. This is forecast to dip only slightly, to 36%, by 2010, thus continuing to represent a key element of future retail spending. The proportion of the population classified by the UN as ‘active’ was 71.2% in 2005, and should remain around this level by 2010. Unemployment was 6.0% in 2007, its lowest rate since the beginning of our forecast period. Following an expected rise to 8.5% in 2009 as a result of the global economic slowdown, BMI forecasts that it will begin to decline again in 2010 and reach 5.5% by 2013. Retail sales for the BMI universe of CEE countries in 2007 amounted to an estimated US$1.02trn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI’s macroeconomic database, amounts to US$1.48trn. Russia, Turkey and Poland together in 2007 accounted for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales, with their combined share expected to reach almost 83% by 2013. For the Czech Republic, the estimated 2007 market share of 4.9% is expected to rise to 5.2% by 2013. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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