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Colombia Retail Report Q2 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: May. 21, 2009 - 43 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe new BMI Colombia Retail report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from around US$96bn in 2007 to US$212bn by 2013. Underlying economic growth, a young and increasingly urban population, the rise in disposable income and greater numbers of working women are key factors behind the forecast growth in Colombia’s retail sales. Colombia’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) was US$202.8bn in 2007. Average annual GDP growth of 3.9% is predicted by BMI to 2013. With the population increasing from 47.1mn in 2007 to an estimated 51.8mn by 2013, GDP per capita is forecast to rise more than 63% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$7,031. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$2,255 in 2007 to US$3,550 by 2013.Domestic demand will continue to be the main engine for the growth in GDP, with improvements in the security outlook feeding through to increased consumer and investor confidence. In 2006, 1.97mn foreign tourists visited Colombia, a 48% increase over the previous year. In 2005, 64.5% of the Colombian population was described by the United Nations (UN) as active, with 39.2% in the critical 20-44 age range. Just over three-quarters (77.4%) of the population was classified by the UN as urban. By 2010, the urban population is forecast to have reached almost 80%, with 38.5% in the 20-44 age band. At this point, 67.3% of the population is expected to be active. The retail sector benefits from Colombia’s status as the third most populous country in Latin America. According to data from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE), sales of clothes and textiles amounted to US$9.1bn in 2008, or 9.8% of the total retail market; while ‘personal hygiene products’ recorded sales of US$6.9bn, a 7.3% market share. ‘Furniture and domestic electrical’ sales were US$10.0bn, representing 10.7% of total retail sales. Assuming constant market shares, BMI forecasts clothes and textiles sales of US$20.7bn by 2013, with personal hygiene products worth US$15.5bn and furniture and domestic electrical sales rising to US$22.6bn. Retail sales for our universe of Latin American countries in 2007 amounted to an estimated US$1.01trn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI’s macroeconomic database, amounts to US$2.56trn. Argentina, Brazil and Mexico together in 2007 accounted for an estimated 79.0% of regional retail sales, with their combined share expected to slip below 77.0% by 2013. For Colombia, the estimated 2007 market share of 9.4% is expected to rise to 10.1% by 2013. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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