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Chile Retail Report Q2 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: May. 21, 2009 - 43 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe new BMI Chile Retail report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from around US$40bn in 2007 to more than US$82bn by 2013. High consumer spending power, well-developed physical infrastructure and a business-friendly regulatory environment are key factors behind the forecast growth in Chilean retail sales. Chile’s nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was US$164.1bn in 2007. Average annual GDP growth of 3.1% is predicted by BMI to 2013. With the population increasing from 16.7mn in 2007 to an estimated 17.9mn by 2013, GDP per capita is forecast to rise 58.5% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$15,581. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$6,711 in 2007 to US$10,750 by 2013.In 2005, 66.4% of the Chilean population was described by the United Nations (UN) as active, with 37.5% in the critical 20-44 age range. The vast majority (87.7%) of Chileans live in urban areas, according to UN data - with 40% of the population living in the Santiago metropolitan area alone. By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have reached more than 90%, with 37.2% in the 20-44 age band. At this point, 68.6% of the population is expected to be active. Chile’s youth population is fuelling demand for consumer goods, with 3.34% of the household budget being spent on clothes in 2007, according to the National Statistics Institute (INE). This represented the highest spending category after cars, rent and public transport. Foreign travel and foreign tourists have stimulated increasingly consumerist attitudes and consumption in recent years, with revenue from foreign tourists rising 9% in the peak month of January 2009 from a year earlier, and domestic tourism revenues up 8%. Despite warning of falling consumer spending, leading department store operator Falabella announced in January 2009 that it had agreed to develop new shopping malls with smaller rival Ripley. Retail sales for our universe of Latin American countries in 2007 amounted to an estimated US$1.01trn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI’s macroeconomic database, amounts to US$2.56trn. Argentina, Brazil and Mexico together in 2007 accounted for an estimated 79.0% of regional retail sales, with their combined share expected to slip below 77.0% by 2013. For Chile, the estimated 2007 market share of 3.9% is expected to be largely unchanged by 2013. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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