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Bulgaria Retail Report Q2 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: May. 8, 2009 - 44 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe new BMI Bulgaria Retail report predicts that the country’s total retail sales are expected to grow from an estimated US$15.9bn in 2007 to US$22.9bn by 2013. Key factors behind retail market expansion include rising disposable incomes, Bulgarians seeking the choice and low prices offered by foreign and domestic chains, and an increase in car ownership. EU membership gained at the start of 2007 and an enviable amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) have allowed retailers to make significant inroads into the market, contributing to forecast annual retail sales growth of 8% between 2007 and 2013.Bulgaria’s nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was US$39.5bn in 2007. Average annual GDP growth of 3.5% is predicted by BMI to 2013. Although the population is forecast to decrease slightly, from 7.6mn in 2007 to an estimated 7.5mn by 2013, GDP per capita is predicted to rise nearly 25% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$6,448. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$3,803 in 2007 to US$5,539 by 2013. The growth in the overall retail market will be driven, in large part, by a growing urban population with higher disposable incomes and an interest in aspirational purchasing. According to the UN Population Division, the urban population in Bulgaria is expected to grow from 70.5% of the total in 2005 to 72.20% by 2010 and to more than 78.0% by 2030. Meanwhile, consumer spending per capita of the middle 60% of the Bulgarian population is forecast by the World Bank to soar from US$1,225 in 2000 to US$5,941 in 2012. Retail sectors that are likely to see substantial growth over the forecast period include over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals, furnishings and do-it-yourself (DIY). BMI data suggest that OTC pharmaceutical sales will double to US$0.26bn by 2013. Assuming an unchanged market share, furnishing sales are set to rise 64% over the forecast period. In 2008, the Austrian home improvement retailer BauMax opened the country’s biggest DIY hypermarket, in Plovdiv. According to press reports, the company plans to open 15 more BauMax outlets at a cost of more than EUR150mn (US$194mn) over the next five years. Retail sales for the BMI universe of CEE countries in 2007 amounted to an estimated US$1,021bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI’s macroeconomic database, amounts to US$1.48trn. Russia, Turkey and Poland together in 2007 accounted for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales, with their combined share expected to reach almost 83% by 2013. For Bulgaria, the estimated 2007 market share of 1.56% is expected to fall to 1.30% by 2013. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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