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Argentina Retail Report Q2 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: May. 14, 2009 - 46 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe new BMI Argentina Retail report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from around US$158bn in 2007 to some US$248bn by 2013. The economic recovery of recent years, an expanding population, the rise in disposable income and a taste for ‘luxury’ items are key factors behind the forecast growth in Argentina’s retail sales.Argentina’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) was US$291.0bn in 2007. Average annual GDP growth of 2.7% is predicted by BMI to 2013. With the population increasing from 39.5mn in 2007 to an estimated 42.0mn by 2013, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by 110% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$15,428. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$3,787 in 2007 to US$6,850 by 2013. In 2005, 63.6% of the Argentine population was described by the UN as active, with 36.7% in the critical 20-44 age range. A massive 90.6% of the population was classified by the UN as urban. By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have reached more than 93.0%, with 38.0% in the 20-44 age band. At this point, 64.9% of the population is expected to be active. In line with the more positive economy since 2004, efforts to rebuild credit have been having a positive impact on consumer expenditure and, consequently, on retail sales. In an effort to repair consumer confidence, banks and retailers introduced more favourable terms for issuing consumer credit, and retailers - particularly the larger ones - established more flexible payment options to encourage expenditure. Tourism also plays an important part in retail sales. During 2008, tourists spent about US$3.3bn in Argentina, up more than 8% from the previous year, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC). Retail sales for our universe of Latin American countries in 2007 amounted to an estimated US$1.01bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI’s macroeconomic database, amounts to US$2,56bn. Argentina, Brazil and Mexico together in 2007 accounted for an estimated 79.0% of regional retail sales, with their combined share expected to slip below 77.0% by 2013. For Argentina, the estimated 2007 market share of 15.6% is expected to fall to 11.8% by 2013. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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