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Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jun. 22, 2009 - 45 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Vietnam Tourism Industry SWOT
Vietnam Political SWOT
Vietnam Economics SWOT
Vietnam Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Vietnam’s Tourism Industry, 2006-2013 (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
Table: Vietnam’s Travel Industry, 2006-2013
Market Overview - Travel
Commercial Airlines
Oil Product Price Forecasts
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q408-Q409 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2006-2013 (US$/bbl)
Market Overview - Hospitality
Accommodation
Regional Case Study: Intercontinental Hotels Group (Asia Pacific)
Gaming
Infrastructure
H5N1 Virus: Latest Developments
Tourism Business Environment
Table: Asia Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ranking
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Composite
Regional rank
Trend
Danger rating
Regional Security: South East Asia
Vietnam’s Security Risk
Currency Forecast
Table: Vietnam - Monetary Policy, 2006-2013
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2013
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth And Exchange Rates, 2006-2011
Table: Emerging Markets’ Growth, 2007-2013
Table: Commodity Prices, 2007-2010
Company Profiles
Saigontourist
Vietnam Airlines
Huong Giang Tourist Company
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings -Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
Sources

Abstract

Arrivals Slump In 2009

Figures released by the Vietnam National Administration of Tourism (VNAT) in May indicate that thetourist industry is continuing to suffer in 2009. In the first four months of the year arrivals fell by 17.8%y-o-y, to 1.29 million. This was particularly disappointing, since Vietnam traditionally receives a boost totourist arrivals around the spring and Easter holidays, which fell in April this year.

This sustained decline in tourist arrivals follows minimal growth of only 0.6% y-o-y in 2008,demonstrating that Vietnam is suffering heavily from the global slowdown in the tourist industries. Thosetraditional source markets currently experiencing particularly harsh economic conditions showed thegreatest contraction in arrivals, such as nearby Japan, China and South Korea. Vietnam will continue toexperience slow visitor arrivals in 2009, although we expect these to pick up towards the end of the year,as the global economy begins to recover. Moreover, Vietnam may benefit slightly from the ongoingunrest in nearby Thailand, which may encourage visitors to visit Vietnam instead.

Industry Launches Promotion Campaign

In an effort to bolster the flagging tourist industry, hotels and tour operators have combined to launch apromotional campaign. Named ‘Impressive Vietnam’, this runs from January-September 2009, and isaiming at attracting tourists to return, particularly via package holidays. The government has provided anincentive to sign up to such offers, by temporarily waiving visa requirements for tourists participating inany of the tours on offer. Vietnam Airlines is also offering a 10% discount on international and domesticflights. In addition, all the participating hotels and operators have made price reductions. By May, 118hotels and 85 travel operators had joined the campaign. So far this campaign appears to have had moreeffect on domestic tourism, with domestic travel rising by 30% y-o-y in Q109.

Vietnam Airlines Plans Fleet Expansion

Despite the dismal outlook for the tourist industry in 2009, state-owned carrier Vietnam Airlines ispressing ahead with an ambitious fleet expansion plan. From its current fleet of 58 (including Airbus320s, Airbus A321s and Boeing 777s), the airline plans to expand to 107 by 2015 and 110 by 2020. By2015, all the fleet is planned to consist of new generation aircraft. In May its first new ATR-72-500s willbegin to arrive, replacing its ATR-72-200s. In addition, the government has approved the airline’spurchase of 10 new A321, and it considering expanding its order. Replacement of its A330s and Boeing777s is scheduled to begin in 2013. The airline is seeking to position itself strongly for the expectedrecovery in the tourism industry in 2010, with its new fleet allowing it to expand rapidly once demandpicks up again.

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