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China Tourism Report Q3 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jun. 22, 2009 - 55 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
China Tourism Industry SWOT
China Political SWOT
China Economic SWOT
China Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: China’s Tourism And Travel Industry, 2005-2013
Market Overview - Travel
Airlines
State-Run Airlines
Private Airlines
Cruises
Oil Price Forecast
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q408-Q409 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2006-2013 (US$/bbl)
Market Overview - Hospitality
Hotels
Table: Structure Of Accommodation Market
Key Risks To Accommodation Forecast Scenario
Special Focus: Budget Hotels
Gaming
H5N1 Virus Update
China Tourism Business Environment
Table: Asia Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ranking
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Composite
Regional Rank
Trend
Danger Rating
Regional Security: North And South Asia
China’s Security Risk Rating
Currency Forecast
Table: China - Monetary Policy, 2006-2013
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2007-2013
Table: Developed States GDP Growth, 2008-2010
Table: Emerging Markets GDP Growth, 2008-2010
Table: Commodity Prices, 2007-2010
Company Profiles
Air China
Melco International Development
Shangri-La Asia Ltd
Jinjiang International Holdings
Country Snapshot: China Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2005-2012
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings - Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
Sources

Abstract

Tourism Arrivals Fall

Figures released by the National Tourism Administration of China (CNTA) in April 2009 showed thattourist arrivals fell in the first two months of 2009, following on from the full-year decline seen in 2008.In January and February, total foreign tourist arrivals totalled 3.1mn, representing a fall of 22.8% year-onyear(y-o-y). However, February figures alone were not so dispiriting, with arrivals falling by 12.9%. Thisindicates that arrivals fell particularly heavily in January following the Christmas holiday season.

Accordingly, foreign exchange tourist revenue also fell, declining 14.3% y-o-y in January and February,to US$5.6bn.

China’s tourist downturn is in line with the global-wide industry slowdown. While this is likely to recoverin 2010 in line with the global economy, arrivals will remain subdued in 2009. However, China will lookto the domestic tourist industry (including Hong Kong and Macau) to provide some resilience, with theeconomic downturn meaning that fewer Chinese are likely to travel abroad in 2009.

Looking To Tibet

Tibet is set to be one of the focal points of Chinese tourism in 2009.In this year, Beijing will be holding aseries of events to mark the 50-year anniversary of Tibet’s incorporation into China, serving to attractboth foreign and domestic tourists, Indeed, in Q1 2009 tourist arrivals to the Tibet Autonomous Regionrose by 6.9% y-o-y, to 140,000, bucking the national trend. At the same time, tourist receipts rose toCNY128.6mn, a rise of 5.0% y-o-y. As such, the regional tourist administration is expecting total touristarrivals of 3.0mn in 2009. There had been concerns that Tibet’s tourist industry would suffer heavily fromthe pro-independence riots in March 2008, after which the region was closed to foreign tourists for aperiod. However, encouraging Q109 figures suggest that this has not been the case and that arrivals willcontinue to perform strongly in 2009.

China Southern Reports 2008 Loss

In line with the rest of China’s aviation industry, carrier China Southern reported a full-year loss for 2008.The company made a loss of US$705.8mn, after posting a profit of US$269mn the previous year.

However, the company’s loss was not due to a decline in business but more to an increasingly adverseoperating environment. Indeed, its revenues rose by 1.6% y-o-y, to US$8.1bn. Yet operating costs rosesharply, to US$9.0bn, representing a 16.6% increase y-o-y. In particular, China Southern suffered fromthe steep rise in oil (fuel) prices in H108, and is expecting its operating costs to reduce in the lower oilprice environment of 2009.

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