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Russia Tourism Report Q3 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jun. 22, 2009 - 56 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Russia Tourism Industry SWOT
Russia Political SWOT
Russia Economic SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Russia’s Tourism Industry, 2006-2013
Table: Russia Travel Industry, 2006-2013 (‘000 people)
Market Overview - Travel
Commercial Airlines
Oil Price Forecast
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q408-Q409 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2006-2013 (US$/bbl)
Market Overview - Hospitality
Accommodation
Accommodation Developments
Gaming
Infrastructure
Business Environment Ratings
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Travel And Tourism Business Environment Rating
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Regional Security Risk Ratings
Table: Central And Eastern Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
Regional Security: Europe
Russia’s Security Risk
Currency Forecast
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2013
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth And Exchange Rates, 2006-2011
Table: Emerging Markets’ Growth, 2007-2013
Table: Commodity Prices, 2007-2010
Company Profiles
Aeroflot
S7 Airlines
Transaero
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings - Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
Sources

Abstract

Tourism Overview

Official data for 2008 show that foreign visitor arrivals were up a modest 3% year-on-year (y-o-y) tonearly 23.7mn - slightly ahead of the previous year’s growth rate. Included in these data, foreign touristarrivals increased a relatively low 4% y-o-y, but this still represented a recovery compared with 2007.

The most important source markets (outside the former Soviet Union countries) for tourist arrivals were,in order of importance, Germany, the US, Italy, Finland, the UK and China. Of these source countries,growth in arrivals attributed to tourism was strongest for the UK, Italy and the US. By contrast, touristarrivals from Germany, Finland and China, recorded y-o-y declines.

Forecast Scenario

This quarter, we have revised down our growth forecasts for Ukraine, Kazakhstan, the eurozone and theUS - the key source markets for Russian foreign visitor arrivals. Considering the pace of the forecasteconomic decline in these major markets, the outlook for foreign visitors in 2009 is extremely poor.

Moreover, taking into account evidence that suggests relatively sharp falls in the number of foreignvisitors to Moscow and St. Petersburg in the early months of this year, BMI forecasts a decline in arrivalsto Russia in the order of 12% y-o-y in 2009. Price rises (especially in accommodation) are also likely tohave a negative influence on the tourism sector in the short term, with annual inflation at 14% y-o-y inMarch 2009. In line with broad economic recovery in key source markets in 2010, however, we expect aslight pick up in arrivals from next year.

Aeroflot

Latest data confirm the anticipated marked slowdown in Russian air passenger traffic. Figures for the firstthree months of 2009 show that Russian national airline Aeroflot carried nearly 1.8mn passengers, whichrepresents a sizeable fall of 13.4% compared with the corresponding period a year earlier. Furthermore,passenger numbers in March fell nearly 17% compared with the same month in 2008.

Transaero

The 2009 summer flight schedule of Russian airline Transaero has a greatly expanded domestic routenetwork of 20 destinations, which is more than double the number of destinations compared with thesame period in 2008.

Domodedovo International Airport

From May 2009, Transaero, S7 Airlines, Ural Airlines, Region-avia and Wind Rose Airlines (aUkrainian charter airline) opened new flights from Russia’s main aviation hub, Moscow’s DomodedovoInternational Airport, to major Russian and Ukrainian cities.

Rezidor Hotel Group

In March 2009, the international hotel operator Rezidor Hotel Group and the domestic companyRegional Hotel Chain (RHC) announced a strategic development agreement for at least 20 Park Innhotels across the Russian Federation. Firm locations have already been identified in 10 key Russian cities,while a further 10 sites are still being considered.

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