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Slovenia Retail Report Q3 2009Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Jun. 22, 2009 - 36 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe BMI Slovenia Retail report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from aroundUS$16.55bn in 2008 to US$19.76bn by 2013. Rising levels of disposable income and the continueddevelopment of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in Slovenianretail sales.Slovenia’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) was US$49.74bn in 2008, with a decline of 2.9%expected in 2009 as the economy shifts into reverse gear. Average annual GDP growth of 1.9% is nowpredicted by BMI between 2008 and 2013. With the population increasing from 2.04mn in 2008 to anestimated 2.06mn by 2013, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by just over 10% over the period, reachingUS$26,952. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$4,979 in 2008 toUS$5,999 by 2013. The size of the urban population in Slovenia is unusually small, which reflects in part the absence of largecities resulting from the mountainous terrain. Even in the capital city Ljubljana, there are fewer than300,000 residents. The average age in the country is also high relative to other European countries,currently at around 41. Both of these factors work against retailers. Unemployment, which rose to 7.0% atend-2008, looks set to hit 10% in 2009 before decreasing by the end of the forecast period (to 6.8% in2013). In 2005, almost 71% of the Slovenian population was described by the United Nations (UN) as active, butwith just 36.7% in the critical 20-44 age range. Just over half of the population was classified by the UNas urban (50.8%). By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have fallen to 47.4%, with only 32.9% inthe 20-44 age band. At this point, 68.4% of the population is expected to be active. According to 2007 data from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia (SURS), there was a 9.9%rise in retail sales over the previous year, with non-food value up 12.7% year-on-year (y-o-y), while food,beverages and tobacco gained 8.6% over the 2006 level. BMI estimates that food and drink had a 29.3% share of the total retail market in 2008, and this isforecast to ease to 28.5% by 2013. Over-the-counter (OTC_ pharmaceutical sales are predicted toincrease from US$0.05bn in 2008 to US$0.06bn by 2013, a rise of 23%; with automotive sales up 10%during the same period to around US$1.4bn. Retail sales for the BMI universe of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 2008 amounted toan estimated US$1.20trn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for theregion, based on BMI’s macroeconomic database, amounts to US$1.82trn. Russia, Turkey and Polandtogether in 2008 accounted for an estimated 83% of regional retail sales, with their combined shareexpected to reach almost 85% by 2013. For Slovenia, the estimated 2008 market share of 1.4% isexpected to fall to 1.3% by 2013. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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