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Mexico Tourism Report Q3 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jun. 22, 2009 - 46 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Mexico Tourism Industry SWOT
Mexico Political SWOT
Mexico Economic SWOT
Mexico Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Mexico’s Travel Industry, 2003-2013 (‘000 people, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Mexico’s Tourism Industry, 2005-2013
Market Overview - Travel
Commercial Airlines
Aeroméxico SWOT Analysis
Low-Cost Airlines
Cruises
Oil Price Forecasts
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q408-Q409 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2006-2013 (US$/bbl)
Market Overview - Hospitality
Accommodation
Table: Mexico’s Accommodation Sector, 2005-2013
Mexico Tourist Business Environment
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Latin America Security Ratings
Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Regional Security: Latin America
Mexico’s Security Risk Rating
Currency Forecast
Table: Mexico - Monetary Policy, 2006-2013
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2007-2013
Table: Developed States GDP Growth, 2008-2010
Table: Emerging Markets GDP Growth, 2008-2010
Table: Commodity Prices, 2007-2010
Company Profiles
Mexicana de Aviación
Aeroméxico
Grupo Posadas
Sol Melia
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings - Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
Sources

Abstract

Q109 Tourist Arrivals Post Minimal Growth

Data released by the Ministry of Tourism (Sectur) shows that tourist arrivals grew in the first threemonths of 2009, to 6.02 million, up from 5.6 million in the same period the previous year. Thisrepresented a 7.5% growth y-o-y, impressive given that Easter this year fell in April rather than March.This level of growth marks an acceleration from 2008, when arrivals increased by 5.9% y-o-y.

However, such positive Q1 growth is likely to reverse rapidly in the second quarter, with figures for Aprilfalling. This is due to the outbreak of swine flu in Mexico in late April, which led to the cancellation ofmany tourist charter flights and package holidays, as well as a brief shutdown of Mexico’s keyinfrastructure. While the government has sought to downplay the outbreak, stressing the preventativemeasures in place, and the fact that the rate of infection had dropped by May, the damage done will besignificant. Although the infection rate was highest in Mexico City, tour operators and cruise linescancelled operations as far as the southern Yucatan region, indicating that all of Mexico will be hit hard.

Although the rate of infection has slowed, the damage to Mexico’s tourist profile will act as a powerfuldeterrent to potential tourists, weighing on tourist arrivals in the short term.

Swine Flu Hits Mexico

In late April an outbreak of swine flu (H1NI) hit Mexico, rapidly spreading to other countries across theworld. The virus is an A/H1N1 strain of influenza, and can be fatal for humans. As of late May, there hadbeen 2,895 confirmed cases in Mexico and 66 deaths. The US had 4,714 confirmed cases and four deaths,while Canada had 496 confirmed cases and one death. Other countries affected include Australia, Brazil,China, India, Israel, Japan, Spain and the UK. Immediately following the outbreak, Mexico closedschools, restaurants and many public places and limited public transport services in an effort to reduceinfection. Moreover, as the measures took effect and the infection rate slowed in May, the governmentlaunched a tourism marketing campaign, designed at reassuring tourists regarding the safety of visitingMexico and encouraging them to return.

Mexicana Launches New Carrier

Major Mexican airline Mexicana in March launched a new carrier on 16 March, known as MexicanaLink. The new airline is intended to complement the services provided by Mexicana and its low-costairline Mexicana Click, by providing increased domestic services. The airline is based in Guadalajara andwill therefore allow passengers to make regional connections without having to transit through MexicoCity. Once fully launched, the new airline will service 25 domestic routes, using 13 leased BombardierCRJ-200s, with capacity of 50 passengers each. These domestic routes will replace many of thosepreviously operated by low-cost carrier Alma de Mexico, which ceased operations in November 2008,owing to financial difficulties. Mexicana’s decision to launch Mexicana Link indicates that it views theglobal economic downturn as an opportunity to consolidate its presence in the Mexican market. Withmany low-cost operators suffering from a slowdown in passenger travel and high fuel costs, the groupmay seek to expand its services further in order to provide further competition.

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