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Oman Tourism Report Q3 2009

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jun. 22, 2009 - 32 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Oman Tourism Industry SWOT
Oman Political SWOT
Oman Economic SWOT
Oman Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Oman’s Tourism Industry, 2004-2013 (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
Market Overview - Travel
Commercial Airlines
Airports
Road Transport
Ferries
Rail
Oil Price Forecasts
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q408-Q409 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2006-2013 (US$/bbl)
Market Overview - Hospitality
Accommodation
Developments
Tourism Infrastructure
Currency Forecast
Table: Oman - Monetary Policy, 2006-2013
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2007-2013
Table: Developed States GDP Growth, 2008-2010
Table: Emerging Markets GDP Growth, 2008-2010
Table: Commodity Prices, 2007-2010
Company Profiles
Oman Air
Al Batinah Hotels Company
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Sources

Abstract

Oman might still lay claim to being one of the ‘great undiscovered destinations’ but that position is very likely to change in the coming years. While tourism - at least from countries outside the Persian Gulfregion - is still only new, there has been a successful effort to build the profile and attract visitors to thisonce closed nation.

Oman has smaller oil and gas reserves than many of its neighbours and consequently has had to face thechallenge of diversifying its economy earlier than most. Tourism was identified several years ago as oneof the new industries on which the Sultanate will invest. Funds have been allocated both to infrastructurewithin the country and marketing efforts overseas.

The most recent initiative is a regional one. Iran and Oman have entered into an agreement to promotetourism between the two countries and to undertake joint promotions to third countries.

Oman plans to attract 12 million visitors annually by 2020, an almost fourfold increase on the currentlevel. The focal point for decision making is how it can achieve this increase while maintaining the‘authentic’ character of the Sultanate. Lore Koening, director of sales and marketing at the Chedi hotel inMuscat put it this way in a recent interview, ‘People come to Oman because they are interested in thecountry, its culture and its history. They don’t come because there is a cheap deal going and they will getguaranteed sunshine. That is not our market.’

At this point the majority of tourists to Oman come from other Gulf countries to the coast on thesouthwest corner of the country. This area catches the Indian Ocean monsoon during the summer monthsbetween June and September. While most of the gulf region suffers from extreme, dry heat during thattime, the Dhofar Province has a cool and misty summer. Travellers from outside the region may not seethe attraction of a cool, damp 25 degrees Celsius (oC) summer holiday.

The potential growth in tourist numbers, however, must come from further afield. This is happening and itis changing the balance among the arriving visitors. This newer part of the tourism market has beenimpacted by the global financial crisis, with the result that visitor numbers, hotel occupancy and sectoremployment are all down on the levels from the same time a year ago.

The business environment in Oman is exemplary and will remain so, as the government, aware of its owneconomic limitations, seeks to attract further investment flows. The high-inflation environment will be adeterrent to some, but ongoing ample liquidity and government spending, as well as good medium- tolong-term growth potential, should be sufficient to counteract this. The legal system is relativelytransparent and clear, and there is no history of disputes involving foreign investors. At the same time,corruption levels are lower than in other countries in the Middle East, and the Omani bureaucracy isregarded as the most efficient in the Persian Gulf region. The sultanate ranks 49th globally in the WorldBank’s 2008 Doing Business survey, and 47th in our own business environment rankings.

Like other GCC states, Oman is looking largely to spend its way out of recession. The government hassignalled it will act where needed. The 2009 budget, as unveiled in January anticipates a deficit ofOMR810bn, which would equate to around 5% of gross domestic product (GDP). BMI believes that thelikelihood of increased spending and lower income will push the deficit further into the red. We expect abudget deficit of 8.5% for this year, which will ease slightly in 2010. Given the strong financial assets andfive years of prudent saving, this deficit is easily manageable.

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