3G Femtocells and Beyond Opportunities & Service Scenarios in the Home 2009-2014

Published by: Juniper Research Limited

Published: Jun. 29, 2009 - 110 Pages

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Introduction

Industry Update

Market Forecast Scenarios

3G Femtocell Access Point Forecast

3G Femtocell Subscribers Forecast

3G Femtocell Service Revenues Forecast

Market Drivers

Recommendations

1. Technology & Market Drivers

1.1 Definition

Figure 1.1: Femtocell Network Connectivity

Figure 1.2: Femtocell Network at Home

Figure 1.3 Femtocell Services in the Home

1.2 Network Hardware Elements

1.2.1 Chipsets

1.2.2 Access Points

Figure 1.4: ip.access Oyster 3G Femtocell Access Point

Figure 1.5: Airvana HubBub UMTS Femtocell Access Point

Figure 1.6 Alcatel-Lucent/Sagem Femtocell Access Point

1.2.3 Gateways

Figure 1.7: Femtocell Converged Gateway GENBAND G9

1.3 Recent Developments

1.3.1 3GPP Release 8 Standard

1.3.2 Interference

1.3.2 Business Case

1.3.3 Further Standards

1.4 Market Drivers

1.4.1 Personal Connectivity: “Always On”

Figure 1.8: Broadband Connectivity Demand Cycle

1.4.2 Poor In-Building Coverage

Figure 1.9: Voice vs. Data ARPU by Country (Japan, France, US, UK, South Korea, Brazil,China & Philippines) for 2008

1.4.3 Data Traffic Growth & New Services

i. Orange Reveals Digital Media Boom

ii. Cisco Data Traffic Forecast

Figure 1.10: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast

iii. Growth of Mobile Commerce

Figure 1.11: Bank of America Mobile Banking Screens

Figure 1.12: mPoria Mobile Web Shopping Portal

iv. Mobile Web 2.0 - Future Applications and Services

v. Video iPod Ignites Portable Video Revolution

Figure 1.13: Mobile Data Drivers - The Role of Video

1.4.4 Data Traffic Offload - Cost Reduction

Figure 1.14: Mobile Broadband Traffic Volume vs. Revenue

1.4.5 Femtocell Challenges

1.4.6 Conclusion

Figure 1.15: Femtocell Market Drivers

2. Market Dynamics

2.1 Femto Forum Interview

2.1.1 Background/History

2.1.2 Forum’s Aims

2.1.3 Technical Considerations - Interference

2.1.4 Femtocell Standardisation

2.1.5 Business Case

2.1.6 Forum Targets 2009

2.1.7 Market Issues and Opportunities

2.2 Femtocell Trials

Table 2.1: 3G Home Femtocell Trials Split by 8 Key Regions

2.3 Femtocell Vendor Ecosystem

2.3.1 The Big Picture

2.3.2 Ecosystem Relationships

Table 2.2: Femtocell Ecosystem

3. Market Forecast Approach

3.1 Methodology

Figure 3.1: Femtocell Market Forecast Methodology

3.2 Geographical Splits

3.3 Residential Broadband Subscriber Forecast

Figure 3.2: Number of Consumer 3G/3.5G/3.9G Subscribers per Residential Broadband Subscriber Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Table 3.1: Number of Consumer 3G/3.5G/3.9G Subscribers per Residential Broadband

Subscriber Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Figure 3.3: Residential Broadband Subscribers as a Percentage of Total Households Split by Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Table 3.2: Residential Broadband Subscribers as a Percentage of Total Households Split by Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Figure 3.4: Residential Broadband Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Table 3.3: Residential Broadband Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

3.4 Consumer 3G Mobile Subscriber Forecast

Figure 3.5: Consumer 3G Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

Table 3.4: Consumer 3G Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014

3.5 Forecast Scenarios

Table 3.5: Femtocell Forecast Scenario Parameter Comparison: Baseline, Best & Worst Cases

4. Baseline Scenario

4.1 3G Femtocell Regional Forecast

4.1.1 North America

4.1.2 Western Europe

4.1.3 Far East & China and Rest of Asia Pacific

4.1.4 3G Femtocell Take-up and Access Points Forecasts

Figure 4.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband Subscribers Split by

Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 4.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband Subscribers Split by

8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

Figure 4.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 -

2014

Table 4.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 -2014

4.2 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments: Units

4.2.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Shipments

Figure 4.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 4.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

4.2.2 Standalone Access Point Shipments

Figure 4.4: Airvana HubBub UMTS Femtocell Access Point

Figure 4.5: Standalone 3G Femtocells Market Segmentation (%) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 4.4: Standalone 3G Femtocells Market Segmentation (%) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

Figure 4.6: Standalone 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions

Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 4.5: Standalone 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

4.2.3 Integrated Access Point Shipments

Figure 4.7: Netgear’s View of Home Connectivity

Figure 4.8: Netgear - Multi Function Broadband WiFi Gateway

Figure 4.9: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by Region Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 4.6: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

4.3 3G Femtocell Access Point Pricing

Figure 4.10: picoChip PC302 Single-chip 3GPP Femtocell

Figure 4.11: 3G Femtocell Pricing ($) for Standalone and Integrated Product Types Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 4.7: 3G Femtocell Pricing ($) for Standalone and Integrated Product Types Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

4.4 3G Femtocell Access Point Market Value

4.4.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Market

Figure 4.12: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 4.8: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

4.4.2 Standalone Access Point Market

Figure 4.13: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($ million) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 4.9: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

4.4.3 Integrated Access Point Market

Figure 4.14: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 4.10: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

4.5 3G Femtocell Subscribers

Figure 4.15: Ratio of 3G Consumer Subscribers to Residential Broadband Subscribers - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 4.11: Ratio of 3G Consumer Subscribers to Residential Broadband Subscribers - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

Figure 4.16: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 -

2014

Table 4.12: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 -2014

4.6 3G Femtocell Service Revenues

4.6.1 Package Types and Pricing

4.6.2 Service Revenues by Package Type

Figure 4.17: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

Figure 4.18: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (%) - Split by

8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 4.13: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (%) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

Figure 4.19: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (m) - Split by

8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 4.14: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 4.15: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

4.6.2 Service Revenues by Region

Figure 4.20: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario - 2014

Table 4.16: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

5. Best Case Scenario

5.1 3G Femtocell Take-up

Figure 5.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband Subscribers Split by Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 5.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Figure 5.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 -2014

Table 5.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario - 2014

5.2 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments: Units

5.2.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Shipments

Figure 5.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 5.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

5.2.2 Standalone Access Point Shipments

Figure 5.4: Standalone 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by Region Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 5.4: Standalone 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

5.2.3 Integrated Access Point Shipments

Figure 5.5: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by Region Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 5.5: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

5.3 3G Femtocell Access Point Market Value

5.3.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Market

Figure 5.6: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 5.6: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

5.3.2 Standalone Access Point Market

Figure 5.7: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 5.7: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

5.3.3 Integrated Access Point Market

Figure 5.8: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 5.8: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

5.4 3G Femtocell Subscribers

Figure 5.9: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 5.9: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario - 2014

5.5 3G Femtocell Service Revenues

5.5.1 Service Revenues by Package Type

Figure 5.10: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Figure 5.11: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (%) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 5.10: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (%) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Figure 5.12: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 5.11: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 5.12: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

5.5.2 Service Revenues by Region

Figure 5.13: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 5.13: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

6. Worst Case Scenario

6.1 3G Femtocell Take-up

Figure 6.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband Subscribers Split by Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 6.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Figure 6.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario - 2014

Table 6.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

6.2 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments: Units

6.2.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Shipments

Figure 6.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 6.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

6.2.2 Standalone Access Point Shipments

Figure 6.4: Standalone 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by Region Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 6.4: Standalone 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

6.2.3 Integrated Access Point Shipments

Figure 6.5: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 6.5: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

6.3 3G Femtocell Access Point Market Value

6.3.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Market

Figure 6.6: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 6.6: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

6.3.2 Standalone Access Point Market

Figure 6.7: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst

Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 6.7: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

6.3.3 Integrated Access Point Market

Figure 6.8: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 6.8: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

6.4 3G Femtocell Subscribers

Figure 6.9: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario - 2014

Table 6.9: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

6.5 3G Femtocell Service Revenues

6.5.1 Service Revenues by Package Type

Figure 6.10: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Figure 6.11: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (%) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 6.10: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (%) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Figure 6.12: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 6.11: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 6.12: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package Worst Case

Scenario 2009 - 2014

6.5.2 Service Revenues by Region

Figure 6.13: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

Table 6.13: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

7. Scenario Comparison and Analysis

7.1 3G Femtocell Take-up

Figure 7.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - % of Residential Broadband Subscribers Scenario

Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014

Table 7.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - % of Residential Broadband Subscribers Scenario

Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014

Figure 7.2: 3G Femtocell Take-up - % of Residential Broadband Subscribers Scenario

Comparison Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case Split by 3 Key Regions 2014

Table 7.2: 3G Femtocell Take-up - % of Residential Broadband Subscribers Scenario Comparison Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case Split by 3 Key Regions 2014

7.2 3G Femtocell Access Points Scenario Comparison

Figure 7.3: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014

Table 7.3: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Scenario Comparison Global Best

Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014

7.3 3G Femtocell Subscribers Scenario Comparison

Figure 7.4: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) Scenario Comparison Global Best

Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014

Table 7.4: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) Scenario Comparison Global Best

Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014

7.4 3G Femtocell Service Revenues Scenario Comparison

Figure 7.5: 3G Femtocell Total Service Revenues ($m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014

Table 7.5: 3G Femtocell Total Service Revenues ($m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014

Figure 7.6: 3G Femtocell Total Service Revenues ($m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2012 and 2014

Figure 7.7: 3G Femtocell New and Enhanced Service Revenues ($m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2012 and 2014

Table 7.6: 3G Femtocell New and Enhanced Service Revenues ($m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2012 and 2014

Figure 7.8: O2 Joggler

Abstract

This report presents three different scenarios of how the femtocells market will develop over the next six years up until 2014; best case, baseline and worst case scenario.

Key femtocells forecasts include; the number of femtocells access points shipped both for stand-alone access points and integrated access points, 3G home femtocell subscribers and femtocell service revenues split by; free calling plan, basic monthly value, new and enhanced services and incremental revenue from existing femtocells services.

Each of the femtocells projections use a twin track approach, forecasting both residential broadband subscribers and forecast of 3G subscribers. This report also includes a number of key interviews with femtocells players as well as a list of trials and profiles on femtocell vendors.

Key Questions Addressed by this Report:

• How many 3G femtocells will be installed in homes by region over the next five years?
• What are the consumer 3G femtocell take-up scenarios over the next five years?
• How many consumers will use 3G femtocells by region over the next five years?
• How much service revenue will3Gfemtocells in the home generate?
• What are the shipment breakdowns between standalone and integrated femtocells between 2009 and 2014?
• How will North America,Western Europe and the Far East & China compare for femtocell deployments?

Key Benefits:

• A unique source of combined research and analysis for the 3G femtocells market including technologies, market characteristics and forecasts.
• Practical analysis of the emerging opportunities for vendors and operators.
• Unique insights: includes interviews of leading players with significant experience of the3Gfemtocells market.
• Benefit from fresh thinking and intelligent market assessment.

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